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Cull ewe throughputs increasing, but remain low
Thursday, 22 April 2021
During Q1 2021, estimated slaughter of ewes and rams totalled 277,000 head, 27% (102,000 head) fewer than during the same period in 2020.
Throughput has been increasing during 2021. March figures show 110,000 ewes culled, 23,000 more than in February. However, throughput is still well behind last year’s levels. A low cull kill has been reported for some time now, and slaughter has been below the five-year average since July 2020.
Naturally, the reduction in the number of cull ewes coming forward is supporting their price, as is strength in the market for lambs. There is some speculation that due to the current high lamb prices, in some cases ewes may be going through auction markets as culls, but going back into use for further breeding. Despite dropping back slightly in recent weeks, cull ewe prices have generally been on an upwards trajectory for several months, having also been strong through the latter half of 2020.
Our outlook for this year’s lamb crop, published in January, was built on relative stability in the breeding flock compared to last year. But might it now return to growth? Now that the uncertainty, although not necessarily the impact, of leaving the EU is behind us, flock growth could then be a rational response by some to the phasing out of direct support in the longer term, in favour of something as yet less certain.
In the meantime, look out for reviews of our outlooks for beef, lamb and pork next week.
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