Arable Market Report – 30 March 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, May-26 contract (£/tonne)

May-26 UK feed wheat futures ended the week up £2.40/t (+1.4%) at £173.65/t (Figure 1). The domestic market reversed the drop from the week prior, UK feed wheat futures followed the broad support of global grain markets across the week.

Based on Friday’s close, the relative strength index (RSI) was 60, up from 56 on Friday 20 March. The RSI still remains around the overbought zone (70).

Broadly, grain markets were supported across the week, despite some profit taking on Friday. Support was mainly driven by a mix of weather risk, export demand, technical trading and geopolitical unrest in the Middle East.

There was support on the US market as Chicago wheat gained 1.6%, while Paris milling wheat (May-26) was unchanged across the week, from pressure on Friday.

Geopolitical unrest continues to significantly support higher energy, freight and fertiliser costs, alongside concerns over shipping disruption through key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump announced an extension for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction of Iranian energy plants; this comes as Iran rejected his 15-point plan on ending the war.

Further to that, weather risk also played into the market over the last week. Dryness across the US Plains supported the market with major wheat producing states such as Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska experiencing severe to extreme drought.

Rains are expected in these key areas over the next week which will help relieve some crops. However, the trade will closely monitor this as this is a key fundamental market driver, given that we are approaching the US spring crop planting window. 

Tomorrow’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are likely to be the main near-term market drivers, with traders focused on whether acreage confirms the market’s current bias toward fewer maize acres and more soyabeans, as well as whether old-crop stocks come in tighter or looser than expected.

There is caution in the market that these numbers may not be representative of the true picture given the recent geopolitical unrest and the rise of fertiliser costs could further drive a shift from maize to soyabeans.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Domestic cereals were marginally pressured across the week, following the drop Thursday to Thursday in the futures market (May-26).

Delivered feed wheat (East Anglia, May-26) was quoted at £178.00/t as at Thursday’s close, unchanged week-on-week.

Into Yorkshire (May-26) feed wheat was quoted at £187.00/t, with no comparison on the week.

Bread wheat (North West delivery, May-26) was quoted at £199.50/t, into Northants (May-26) was quoted at £188.50/t, both down £1.00/t week-on-week.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, May-26 contract (£/tonne)

May-26 Paris rapeseed futures in £/t fell slightly from Friday to Friday, dropping to just over £434/t (Figure 2). Prices are close to the 20-day rolling average, which could indicate the nearest level of support or resistance.  

The relative strength index (RSI) fell from 55 to 54 Friday to Friday and is indicating a lack of market momentum.

Paris rapeseed futures May-26 ended last week down 0.4% at €500.25/t, while the Nov-26 contract gained 0.7% to €497.00/t. The price difference between old (May-26) and new crop (Nov-26) Paris rapeseed futures is now at €3.25/t likely driven in part by the increasing unpredictability of the future.

Technically speaking, current prices are close to the €500/t strong resistance/support level.  

The oilseed market is mainly influenced by geopolitical factors, such as the volatility of crude oil prices resulting from the war in the Middle East, and the uncertainty surrounding the rescheduled meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The future of agricultural commodities is also being considered in the context of rising production costs. 

Chicago soya bean futures and Winnipeg canola futures (May-26) fell over the week (20 to 27 March) by 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively.

US net export sales of soya beans for 2025/26 totalled 668.9 Kt for the week ending 19 March. This figure was more than twice that of the previous week and exceeded the top estimate from analysts.

However, the prospect of soya bean exports from the USA to China is currently unclear. Meanwhile, the USA finalised the biofuel blending quotas for the 2026/27 period last Friday, providing some support for soya bean crushing.

Last Thursday, the European Commission published its first rapeseed production forecasts for the EU-27 in 2026/27, estimating production at 19.9 Mt, compared to 20.1 Mt in 2025.

On Friday, Expana updated its 2026 crop forecast, leaving the rapeseed production figure unchanged at 20.8 Mt. However, sunflower production could increase as a result of the shift away from higher-cost production crops.      

A key focus for the market this week is the release of the USDA's March Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports on Tuesday 31 March. The price ratio of soya beans and maize can influence planting intentions for both crops in the USA, especially following the recent rally in fertiliser prices.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith in May was reported at £457.00/t in Friday’s survey, up £1.50/t from the previous week. The price for November delivery (the 2026 crop) was up £4.50/t to £445.00/t.

The price difference between the 2025 and 2026 UK crops has narrowed to £12.00/t. However, this is still higher than the difference between old and new crops in Paris rapeseed futures.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading. It is very important to be aware during this volatile period.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

On Thursday (26 March), we released updated official forecasts of UK cereals supply and demand for 2025/26. Human and industrial demand (H&I) is projected to drop off further to a 20-plus-year low, while animal feed demand for total cereals is expected to remain relatively stable compared with 2024/25. Compared with January’s estimates, total cereal demand by the H&I sectors is expected to fall by 171 Kt to 8.998 Mt, which is 1.454 Mt lower than in 2024/25.

Last Friday we published an AHDB crop development update for 2026 harvest. Our latest crop development report estimates that by 23 March 2026, 82% of UK winter wheat crops were in good or excellent condition.

On Friday 27 March, we started publishing weekly fertiliser prices to provide transparent and reliable market information in response to impacts from the Middle East conflict. As of 20 March, the UK imported AN price is£24/t higher than on 13 March.

There is information on optimal nitrogen application rates in the Nutrient Management Guide (RB209) and AHDB’s cost-benefit calculator is an interactive nitrogen fertiliser adjustment calculator.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

n/c: no comparison

unch: no change in price compared to last week

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