US cropping intentions - a critical watchpoint: Grain Market Update

Given US soyabean and maize production, based on five-year averages, accounts for c. 30% global production, any significant shifts to the area planted for these crops can change global market sentiment.

Last week the USDA released its initial grain and oilseed forecasts at its Agricultural Outlook Forum. There wasn’t a significant market shift as the changes to maize and soyabean areas were anticipated. What is critical to note though is that the February outlook forum is not always a reflection of the final picture.

In this article I want to discuss how this market information could be a potential driver to UK ex-farm grain prices.

Why February is so important

The pricing of Chicago maize and soyabeans new crop (Dec-26, Nov-26) futures is a market watchpoint throughout the month of February. This is because the pricing of these two respective commodities can drive part of US farmer planting intentions, as this can influence profitability signals.

In February, US farmers will usually book their seed and fertilisers. Further to that, crop insurance guarantees are set in February.

The key revenue insurance products set their projected prices using the average of new‑crop futures (December contract for maize and November for soyabeans) during February. This average price in February becomes the floor for how much revenue per acre is protected; once it is fixed, farmers know which crop has the stronger insured margin, not just the higher futures price.

February 2026 price ratio

The price ratio of soyabeans and maize in February can change planting intentions for these two crops. For soyabeans to be favoured over maize, their price usually must be 2.3 or more times the price of maize due to differences in yield and growing costs. Moreover, in circumstances where that ratio is under 2.2 there will be a switch to more maize being planted.

Figure 1. The ratio between soyabean and maize prices in February from 2020–2026, compared to the changes in the final areas of both crops.

Source: CME group, USDA

As Figure 1 displays above, when the February price ratio is higher (solid dark blue line), we see a switch to soyabeans (orange bars). Conversely when the ratio is lower, we see a switch to maize (blue bars).

By yesterday’s close (26 February), the average February price ratio of Chicago maize (Dec-26) and soyabeans (Nov-26) futures was at an average of 2.24. This is not a particularly strong signal to either maize or soyabeans plantings. In the past soyabeans has increased off the back of this ratio (2022, 2024), but the changes previously have been lower than what has been forecast this year.

Last week at the Agricultural Outlook Forum the USDA released its preliminary 2026 forecasts. These showed US maize plantings at 38.0 Mha, down 5% from the record 40.0 Mha in 2025, with soyabeans up 5% to roughly 34.4 Mha from 32.9 Mha, implying a modest shift back toward soyabeans.

What is critical to note though is that these forecasts at this forum are built from USDA’s long‑term modelling, known as baseline projections, not from field surveys or farmer polls. This is unlike in March when the USDA prospective plantings report will be based on a farmer survey.

USDA outlook forum vs March Prospective Plantings

Area forecasts from the USDA can shift between the February outlook forum and the March Prospective Plantings. This shift can be from market shifts, albeit movement of acreage will be limited due to timings and cost, rotation needs and demand prospects which do not align with the USDA’s baseline projections.

Figure 2. US maize and soyabean areas forecasts in February and March, 2015 -2025

Source: USDA

Figure 2 shows the areas in million hectares from the February outlook (dotted bars) against the March acreage (solid bars) in the past 10 years for maize (orange) and soyabeans (blue). This shows that changes can occur, and in years such as 2016, 2020 and 2022 that change can be significant. Therefore, it should be expected that next month the 2026 area figures could change further.

Conclusions

Although the US Midwest is far from the fields of East Anglia, this is something that could definitely change global market sentiment over the next couple of months. The global market has priced in a potential reduction in US maize area at the expense of soyabeans, but based on historical patterns, there haven’t been significant pricing signals to justify this magnitude of shift in area intentions.

The price ratio is a powerful indicator, but intentions can differ due to rotation needs, demand prospects and weather. The USDA March Prospective Plantings could have a different forecast which could soon change the global outlook, and this is something that could influence UK feed wheat futures.

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.