Arable Market Report – 26 May 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures gained £2.95/t (1.6%) last week and ended Friday’s trading at £190.25/t (green line with markers, Figure 1).

In three out of the past four weeks the contract has tried to move above the nearest resistance line of £190.00/t (grey dotted line, Figure 1). This echoes the pattern seen in Paris milling wheat futures, where the Dec-26 contract is currently restrained by a resistance line at €225.00/t. It suggests new market ‘news’ is needed to help the Nov/Dec-26 wheat futures contracts move higher.

Meanwhile, sterling rose against the euro, and to a lesser extent, the US dollar last week. On Friday, the European Central Bank reported sterling at £1 = €1.1594, its highest against the euro since mid-March. This is something to watch as stronger sterling could reduce the impact of global market gains on UK futures or exacerbate any falls.

Grain markets rose last week due to the trade agreement between the US and China (read more in last week’s Market Report) and a further decline in US winter wheat conditions.

However, the gains varied due to exchange rates.

A stronger US dollar and improved US weather forecasts pulled Chicago prices back later in the week. Dec-26 Chicago wheat futures ended Friday up 1.4%, while Dec-26 Chicago maize futures gained 1.1%.

Meanwhile, a weaker euro against the US dollar benefited European grain prices last week. Dec-26 Paris wheat futures gained 2.2% Friday-Friday.

Yesterday, the US market was closed for Memorial Day, and many European countries had public holidays. While the Paris futures market was open, trading volumes were low.

Paris wheat futures fell to €220.75/t yesterday due to a drop in crude oil futures and the euro lifting against the US dollar.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures fell to $96.14/barrel yesterday after the US suggested progress in the peace negotiations between the US and Iran.

The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast of 2026/27 wheat production in top exporting countries from last month. A larger 2026/27 wheat crop for Russia (+1.5 Mt) was more than offset by cuts for the US (-5.7 Mt) and Australia (-2.1 Mt). This could keep the market more sensitive to further challenges to wheat supplies in exporting countries.

However, the IGC kept its projection of total global grain production next season almost unchanged. This was due to larger crop estimates in other countries, including maize in China.

After drier than usual weather in April across much of Europe, the EU’s crop monitor, MARS, reduced its forecasts for EU-27 yields last week. MARS trimmed its forecasts of the 2026 soft wheat, spring barley and maize yields but the forecasts are still 2-3% above their five-year averages. However, MARS cut its forecast for the 2026 winter barley yield by 0.1t/ha from last month to 5.13t/ha, which is only 0.02t/ha above the five-year average. 

Exchange rates and the situation in Iran are likely to influence prices again this week. The weather will also be in focus with high temperatures for much of Europe and parts of Canada, but rain forecast for winter wheat areas in the US.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

New crop (Nov-26) delivered wheat prices rose last week (Thursday-Thursday), following the trend in the UK feed wheat futures prices. Feed wheat (delivered East Anglia, Nov-26) was £190.50/t on Thursday, up £1.00/t from a week earlier.

New crop bread wheat (delivered North West, Nov-26) gained £2.00/t over the same period to £229.00/t.  This equated to a premium of £38.50/t over the Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures price on the same day.

Prices for feed wheat in remaining old crop months were higher than new crop prices. This could disincentivise storing grain into the new season.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract increased modestly by 0.2% in £/t from Friday 15 to Friday 22 May, reaching £457.80/t. The percentage increase in £/t was much lower than the increase in €/t because sterling was stronger against the euro.

Prices moved back from the £460/t resistance level last week. The nearest support level is the 20-day rolling average, which is approaching the resistance line. This suggests that the market may be worth paying more attention to in the coming weeks.

The relative strength index (RSI) remained at 60 on both 15 and 22 May, indicating no significant market momentum.

Crude oil prices came under pressure due to news of progress towards a deal between the US and Iran, which could lead to the Strait of Hormuz being unblocked. Paris rapeseed futures increased last week despite lower crude oil prices. The Nov-26 Paris rapeseed contract ended last week up 1.0%, while nearby Brent crude oil futures fell by 5.2% last week.

Paris rapeseed futures were supported last week by Chicago soyabean futures Nov-26, which increased by 1.5% over the week. Chicago soyabean futures increased following news of improved prospects for the purchase of US soyabeans by China.   

Yesterday, Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 decreased by 2.0%, declining from an important resistance level of €530/t. Further decreases in the crude oil price, down 7.2% at yesterday’s close, put pressure on the market. Chicago futures were closed yesterday due to the national holiday commemorating Memorial Day.

The MARS European crop monitor decreased its forecast for the average rapeseed yield across the EU-27 by 2% to 3.19 t/ha compared to the previous month. However, this figure is close to the five-year average. Late frosts may have affected rapeseed prospects in some areas of Central and Eastern Europe. Insufficient rainfall in April slowed down the biomass accumulation in central, eastern and northern Europe.

Germany’s winter rapeseed output is projected to increase by 4.3% year-on-year to around 4.14 Mt, according to the association of farm cooperatives, DRV. This is broadly unchanged from the previous (April) forecast of 4.15 Mt (LSEG).

According to UkrAgroConsult, the current weather conditions in Ukraine are mostly favourable for rapeseed and its estimate of 2026 rapeseed production is near 3.4 Mt. The USDA's initial forecast for the 2026/27 season showed a predicted 4.2 Mt of rapeseed production in Ukraine.

In its monthly forecast, the International Grains Council (IGC) increased world soyabean production for the 2026/27 season by 1.0 Mt to 442.0 Mt. The IGC also increased its global consumption forecast by 1.0 Mt, while decreasing its trade forecast by the same amount.

Market participants are focusing on the USDA's Crop Progress report today, which will provide an update on the pace of the spring crop planting, including soyabeans.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £457.50/t in Friday’s survey, up £2.50/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery increased by £3.50/t, to £468.50/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £471.50/t, up £1.00 on the week.

In the UK, the difference in delivered prices between August and November 2026 is higher than the difference for the same months in Paris futures.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

Last week, the EU announced that it is suspending most import duties on fertiliser to help farmers. Any impact on grain and oilseed markets will be longer-term. It will depend on if tariff-free import options improve the affordability of fertiliser, and if this, in turn, impacts EU farmers’ application plans and so crop potential.

The latest UK trade data from HMRC shows wheat (179 Kt) and maize (248 Kt) imports increased in March, compared to February. This means the season total so far (July 2025 - March 2026) for wheat is 1.87 Mt, down 22% on the same period last season. Season-to-date maize imports are down 25% at 1.77 Mt.

Barley exports for the season so far reached 367.8 Kt after 61.0 Kt was exported in March 2026. But the total remained behind than last year’s pace of 459.2 Kt.

Meanwhile, following exports of 5.1 Kt in March, oat exports so far this season total 78.5 Kt. This is more than twice the amount exported in the period from July 2024 to March 2025.

This Thursday we will be updating the 2025/26 UK cereals supply and demand estimates.

On Friday there will be an AHDB crop development update for 2026 harvest with updated condition scores.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

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