Arable Market Report – 18 May 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures gained £2.85/t (1.6%) last week and ended Friday at £187.30/t.

Midweek, the contract tried to move above the current resistance line (grey dotted line, Figure 1) of £190.00/t. The contract closed at £192.00/t on Tuesday following the release of the latest USDA report (read more in the Market drivers section). It also stayed close to the resistance line on Wednesday and Thursday.

The prices dropped back slightly on Friday due to a correction in Chicago wheat futures but still ended the week up.

It will be important to watch the market more closely in the coming weeks. The 20-day rolling average (black dashed line, Figure 1), which has been acting as a support line of late, is getting closer to the current resistance line.

When indicators like these get close or meet, it can reinforce a current price trend, or it can trigger a change in the price trend.

Global wheat prices rose last week as the market focused on early forecasts for lower global wheat supplies next season (2026/27).

However, the weekly gains were limited by price falls towards the end of the week. A lack of details from trade talks between the US and China weighed on prices and triggered fund selling.

Dec-26 Paris wheat futures rose 1.4% Friday-Friday, while Dec-26 Chicago wheat futures gained 2.3%. Despite rising on Tuesday, Dec-26 Chicago maize futures fell 2.5% Friday-Friday. 

On Tuesday, the USDA predicted a 4.2 Mt decline in global wheat stocks over 2026/27 due to a 24.8 Mt drop in production from 2025/26’s record high. The fall in stocks was bigger than the market had expected (LSEG) and pushed up prices.

Global maize stocks are also expected to fall in 2026/27. However, the predicted stocks for wheat and maize in major exporting countries are still above 2024/25 levels, both at the headline level and as a percentage of demand.

This may limit wheat price rises without further weather issues, but the market will be more sensitive to any further supply risks or signs of higher demand. 

French cereal crop conditions were stable or slightly improved last week after rain in early May returned. FranceAgriMer also reported that winter crop development also remains around a week ahead of average, though it varies by crop. Meanwhile, maize planting is into the closing stages at 95% complete by 11 May. 

The chance of an El Niño weather event developing from May-July is now 82% and is 96% from December-February according to the US Climate Prediction Centre. This is up from a 61% chance from May-July forecast a month ago. El Niño often brings drier weather in Australia and South East Asia, plus changes to weather patterns in South America.

After releasing few details from the talks in China last week, the US government released a factsheet over the weekend. The factsheet showed China has committed to buy $17 billion of agricultural products from 2026-2028. More buying by China of either grains or soyabeans, which compete for area in the US, could support US and so potentially global grain prices.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

UK delivered prices rose last week, with a bigger rise for Nov-26 delivery than May-26 delivery. This echoed the trend in UK feed wheat futures from 7-14 May.

May-26 feed wheat for delivery in East Anglia gained £1.50/t over the week to £192.00/t, with feed barley for the same delivery up £2.00/t to £162.50/t. 

Meanwhile, the price for feed wheat delivered in East Anglia in Nov-26 was up £6.00/t to £189.50/t.

New crop bread wheat (delivered Nov-26, North West) was reported at £227.00/t, up £4.50/t from last week’s survey. This price equated to £37.50/t above the Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures contract on the same day..

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract increased by 2.7% in £/t from Friday 8 to Friday 15 May and reached £456.79/t. The percentage increase in £/t was greater than the increase in €/t because sterling weakened against the euro. 

Prices moved towards the nearest resistance level of £460/t. The nearest support is at the 20-day rolling average, which is getting close to the nearest resistance line. This suggests it may be worth paying more attention to the market in the coming weeks.

The relative strength index (RSI) rose from 58 on 8 May to 60 on 15 May, moving closer to the overbought zone (70).

Paris rapeseed futures were supported last week by rising crude oil and rapeseed oil prices, as well as a weaker euro against the US dollar. The Nov-26 Paris rapeseed contract ended last week up 1.9%. 

Meanwhile, Chicago soyabean futures decreased due to some profit-taking following the previous rally and a lack of clear information about China's purchase of US soyabeans.

Crude oil prices gained as the market focused on the progress from the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents on resolving the war in Iran and unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. Nearby Brent crude oil futures increased by 7.9% last week, reaching $109.26/barrel. 

The USDA's initial forecasts for the 2026/27 season indicated record-high global rapeseed ending stocks. Forecasts for rapeseed production could increase compared to the 2025/26 season in all major producing countries, except for Canada where it is unchanged, and Australia where it is decreasing.

According to the USDA's initial forecasts, global soyabean stocks in the 2026/27 season could be slightly lower than in the previous two seasons. While production is set to rise, so is demand.

For example, US demand for soyabean oil is expected to rise by 7% in the 2026/27 season. Strong demand for soyabean oil as a biofuel feedstock is supported by the US’s Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027. 

Brazil's Conab expects the country's soyabean crop to reach a record 180.1 Mt (USDA: 180 Mt) in 2025/26, which is an increase on the 179.15 Mt forecast in April. For the 2026/27 season, the USDA is forecasting Brazilian soyabean production to reach record 186 Mt. 

Argentina's Rosario Grains Exchange last week raised its production forecasts for the 2025/26 soyabean to 50.0 Mt (USDA: 48.0 Mt) from 48.0 Mt previously. 

Meanwhile, competition between vegetable oils is increasing following the recent decrease in palm oil prices. Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest level in more than two months last week. Continued uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's biodiesel mandate and anticipated lower export taxes put pressure on the market (LSEG).

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £455.00/t in Friday’s survey, up £8.50/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery also increased by £8.50/t, to £465.00/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £470.50/t, up £11.00 on the week. 

Delivered prices were mainly driven by higher Paris rapeseed futures, with the weaker sterling against the euro also supporting prices in £/t.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

On Thursday (21 May), Defra releases the UK poultry and poultry meat statistics for April.

This Friday, 22 May, is the final day of trading for the UK feed wheat futures May-26 contract. The contract has traded at a range of prices, from its high of £217.00/t on 28 May 2024 to a low of £165.80/t in mid-February 2026.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

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