Arable Market Report – 23 March 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, May-26 contract (£/tonne)

May-26 UK feed wheat futures ended the week down £3.20/t (-1.8%) at £171.25/t (Figure 1). Despite some uptick of support last Wednesday and Thursday, UK feed wheat futures followed the broad pressure of the global grain markets across the week.

Based on Friday’s close the relative strength index (RSI) was 56, down from 68 on Friday 13 March. The RSI started to move down from just outside the overbought zone (70).

Despite the volatility and support in energy markets, global grain markets were broadly pressured across the week as markets adjusted positions while assessing the possible track of what could happen with the conflict in the Middle East.

Although the outcome and timings of this conflict are unknown, last week's markets seemed to pause on recent gains captured as fundamentally global grain markets in the near-term are still very well supplied.

However, commodities will keep broadly tracking the fluctuations in energy due to their widespread use as a feedstock into biofuels and investor interest in commodities as an inflation hedge.

Chicago wheat and maize futures (May-26) were down 3.0% and 0.4%, respectively, Friday–Friday.

Meanwhile Paris milling wheat futures (May-26) were down near 3.4% across the week.

Another contributing factor to market pressure was welcome rains across the US Southern Plains, which had been very dry recently and have large winter wheat areas.

In other grain related news, Russia-focused consultancy SovEcon raised its forecast for the 2026 Russian wheat crop by 1.7 Mt, with production now at 87.6 Mt. Generally favourable weather has contributed to this increase.

FranceAgriMer estimated that 84% (to 16 March) of French winter wheat (exc. durum) was in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged on the week but up from 74% last year. It’s reported that spring barley plantings are 95% complete, ahead of the five-year average of 88%.

A critical watchpoint for the market next week is the USDA March Prospective Plantings, out next Tuesday 31 March.

Further to that, the first 2026/27 supply and demand estimates will be released by the USDA in May.

The International Grains Council released its first estimates for 2026/27 last week, forecasting that world grain output is expected to fall, driven partly by an expected reduction in US output and highlighting the risks from the conflict in the Middle East.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Domestic cereals followed the movement in the UK feed wheat futures market, which was up Thursday to Thursday.

Delivered feed wheat (East Anglia, May-26) was quoted at £178.00/t as at Thursday’s close, gaining £1.00/t week-on-week. Into Avonmouth (May-26) feed wheat was quoted at £185.00/t, up £2.00/t over the same period.

Bread wheat (North West delivery, May-26) was quoted at £200.50/t, gaining £1.00/t, while into Northants (May-26) bread wheat was quoted at £189.50/t, gaining £1.00/t over the same period.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, May-26 contract (£/tonne)

May-26 Paris rapeseed futures in £/t fell last week, Friday to Friday, to just over £434/t (Figure 2). Prices are now close to the 20-day rolling average, which may represent the nearest level of support.

The relative strength index (RSI) fell from 62 to 55 Friday to Friday and is now indicating a lack of market momentum.

Paris rapeseed futures May-26 ended last week down 1.8% at €501.75/t, while the Nov-26 contract fell 1.1% to €493.50/t. Paris rapeseed futures fell due to a decline in Chicago soyabean futures and a strengthening of the euro against the US dollar, after pushing towards important resistance levels the week prior.

Chicago soya bean futures and Winnipeg canola futures (May-26) fell over the week (13 to 20 March) by 5.2% and 1.8%, respectively.

Chicago soya bean futures were influenced by concerns about the upcoming visit of the US President to China, where the export of soya beans from the USA to China could be one of the topics discussed. Profit-taking by the funds also added to the market's momentum.

US net export sales of soya beans for 2025/26 totalled 298.2 Kt for the week ending 12 March. This figure was lower than the previous week's figure and at the lower end of the scale for analysts' estimates.

Conversely, US soya bean crushing in February exceeded all trade estimates, with the daily crushing rate reaching a record high, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association's (NOPA).

Meanwhile, uncertainty remains high regarding the US biofuel policy decisions expected at the end of the month.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service showed a forecast for the 2026/27 season, estimating Chinese soya bean imports at 108.0 Mt, up 2.0 Mt from the Service’s projection for 2025/26. This reflects the moderate growth in the demand for soya bean meal as animal feed.

According to the consultancy firm AgRural 68% of Brazilian soya beans (to 19 March) have been harvested, which is up 8% from 12 March but still below last year's figure of 80%.

Grain trade association Coceral forecasts 2026 rapeseed production in the EU-27 at 20.1 Mt, compared to 20.9 Mt in December.

The market also considered the possibility of farmers increasing the area dedicated to spring rapeseed in Canada and Ukraine given its competitive advantage over other crops, particularly considering rising fertiliser prices.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith in March was reported at £455.00/t in Friday’s survey, down £7.50/t from the previous week. The price for November delivery (the 2026 crop) fell £4.50/t to £440.50/t.

The price difference between the 2025 and 2026 UK crops has narrowed to £14.50/t. However, this is still higher than the difference between old and new crops in Paris rapeseed futures. 

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

It is very important to be aware during this volatile period.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

We reported that the average GB price for UK produced ammonium nitrate fertiliser in February was £402/t, up £/10t from January. UK-produced AN is £35/t higher than February 2025. Prices for UAN, MOP, DAP and TSP showed rises month-on-month – find out more information on fertiliser prices.

However, while the February prices are higher than those in January, this still represents the situation before the active start of the conflict in Iran.

Read more about the impacts of the conflict on farm costs.

There's information on optimal nitrogen application rates in the Nutrient Management Guide (RB209) and AHDB’s cost-benefit calculator is an interactive tool using this information.

This Thursday we will be updating the latest 2025/26 UK cereals supply and demand estimates.

This Friday there will be an AHDB crop development update for 2026 harvest with updated condition scores.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

n/c: no comparison

unch: no change in price compared to last week

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