Arable Market Report – 16 March 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, May-26 contract (£/tonne)

May-26 UK feed wheat futures traded in a £5.40/t range, its widest range since mid-August before ending the week up £2.85/t (+1.7%) at £174.45/t (Figure 1). This is also the contract’s highest closing price since 21 November.

After dipping slightly mid-week, at Friday’s close the relative strength index (RSI) was 68, up from 65 on Friday 6 March (Figure 1). The RSI remained close to the overbought zone (70).

The war in the Middle East continued to drive volatility in crude oil and so global grain markets last week.

Prices fell on Tuesday on hope for a conclusion to the conflict following statements by the US President but rose again after further strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures gained over 11% Friday–Friday to $103.14/barrel. The conflict, along with potential for further US–China trade talks, will remain in focus this week.

Re-positioning by speculative traders also continued to impact grain futures prices, with a largely supportive impact reported for European futures. May-26 Paris milling wheat futures gained 1.2% Friday–Friday, with the Dec-26 contract up 1.3%.

For Chicago wheat futures, May-26 prices did not fully recover from sharp falls earlier in the week due to profit-taking and ended the week down 0.5%.

However, ongoing drier weather for winter wheat in the US Great Plains helped Dec-26 prices gain 0.3% Friday–Friday.

Overall, high global supplies continue to limit the upside for gain prices.

On Tuesday, the USDA again showed 2025/26 end of season global wheat stocks near a five-year high and further increased global maize stocks. However, the report made no reference to the Middle East war.

Meanwhile, the Rosario Grain Exchange held its forecast for the Argentine maize crop unchanged after welcome rain.

Expana reduced its forecast of 2025/26 EU-27 wheat (exc. durum) exports by 0.5 Mt to 27.1 Mt in part due to fewer expected shipments to the Middle East. Barley exports to the region were also cut by 0.1 Mt.

The company also increased its forecasts for the 2026 EU-27 wheat crop by 0.3 Mt to 128.6 Mt and barley crop by 0.1 Mt to 52.3 Mt, edging further above the 2021–2025 average crops.

Gains in wheat and barley production were offset by a cut to the maize forecast to 57.9 Mt.

Drier weather in France helped previously delayed spring barley planting jump from 32% to 87% complete between 2 and 9 March (FranceAgriMer). Winter wheat and barley crop condition scores were also stable.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

UK delivered prices for bread wheat in the North West in May-26 rose £3.00/t between 5 and 12 March to £199.50/t. This equated to a £27.00/t premium over May-26 futures, up £0.50/t on the week.

Meanwhile, the price for Nov-26 was reported at 216.50/t, up £1.00/t week-on-week and £35.50/t above the Nov-26 futures.

In East Anglia, the delivered price for feed wheat in May-26 gained £2.50/t to £177.00/t, while the price for Nov-26 delivery gained £1.50/t to £181.50/t.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/c = no comparison available.

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, May-26 contract (£/tonne)

May-26 Paris rapeseed futures in £/t gained 0.2% last week, Friday to Friday, to just over £442/t. However, the strengthening of the sterling against the euro over the week limited price increases in £/t. Despite rising, the market remains below the nearest resistance level of £455/t (Figure 2).

The relative strength index (RSI) fell from 65 to 62 between Friday and Friday moving away from the oversold zone (70).

Paris rapeseed futures May-26 ended the week up 0.4% at €511.25/t, while the Nov-26 contract gained 1.2% to €499.00/t.

Prices for both old and new crops have increased due to the strong rally in the crude oil market. However, after testing the strong resistance levels of €520/t (May-26 contract) and €500/t (Nov-26 contract), respectively, the price corrected.

A weaker euro against the US dollar, which reached its lowest level since July 2025, also supported Paris futures last week.

This week, we could see currencies having a greater influence on the market due to the interest rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve on 18 March and the European Central Bank on 19 March.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures rose by 11.3% last week, reaching $103.14/barrel on Friday. The price of crude oil is still rising due to the situation in the Middle East and ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Chicago soya bean futures and Winnipeg canola futures (May-26) gained over the week (6–13 March) by 2.0% and 1.3%, respectively.

Chicago soyabean futures received some support after the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture has introduced stricter sanitary inspections of soyabeans destined for China, to screen for pests and weeds. This follows a request from the Chinese government (LSEG).

The price of Chicago soya bean oil futures for the nearest month of delivery rose by 1.3% last week. 

On Friday, Brazil's agency Conab showed that the country's 2025/26 soyabean production is expected to reach a record 177.85 Mt, slightly trimming its February forecast of 177.98 Mt. However, the latest forecast predicts that exports will reach 114.4 Mt, up from 112.2 Mt in the previous forecast.

The price ratio of soya beans and maize can influence planting intentions for maize and soyabeans in the USA.

Currently, soya beans are favoured over maize (Nov-26 vs Dec-26) because their price is 2.37 times higher than that of maize, due to differences in yield and growing costs.

The German association of farm cooperatives released its first harvest estimate for 2026, forecasting a 3.7% year-on-year increase in Germany’s rapeseed crop, which is expected to reach around 4.12 Mt.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith in March was reported at £462.50/t in Friday’s survey, up £4.00/t from the previous week. The price for November delivery (the 2026 crop) gained £6.50/t to £445.00/t.

The price difference between the 2025 and 2026 crops has narrowed, with the old crop showing smaller gains than new crop contracts in Paris rapeseed futures. 

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading. It is very important to be aware during this volatile period.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

The latest UK trade data from HMRC shows wheat (216 Kt) and maize (189 Kt) imports slowed down in January, compared to December. This means the season total so far (July 2025–Jan 2026) for wheat is 1.52 Mt, down 23% on the same period last season. Season-to-date maize imports are down 21% at 1.36 Mt.

In contrast, rapeseed imports rose in January to 148.3 Kt, including 76.0 Kt from Ukraine, keeping the season-to-date total above last season.

Barley exports for the season so far reached 271.3 Kt after 27.4 Kt was exported in January 2026 but remained behind than last year’s pace of 317.0 Kt. Meanwhile, following exports of 9.4 Kt in January 2025/26 oat exports so far total to 54.2 Kt, the strongest pace for two seasons.

Defra forecasts that Farm Business Income for cereals farms in England from March 2025–February 2026 will fall by two thirds compared to the previous year to just £17,000. This is said to reflect a combination of lower output from cereals and the reduction to the delinked Basic Payment. 

Read more about forecasts of Farm Business Income on Defra’s website.

Data on UK poultry placings in February is due from Defra this Thursday (19 March).

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

Due to insufficient quotes, we are unable to publish delivered Belfast cereals prices for 13 March 2026.

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

n/c: no comparison

unch: no change in price compared to last week

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