Arable Market Report – 22 June 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-26) broadly followed the gains at the start of the week in Paris milling wheat futures (Nov-26), but the domestic market ended down across the week. This was despite sterling weakening against the euro after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday.

The Nov-26 contract lost £1.25/t or 0.7%, to end Friday’s trading at £178.15/t (green line with markers, Figure 1). This is below both the 20-day (dashed black line, Figure 1) and 50-day rolling average (solid back line, Figure 1).

Grains markets ended mixed across the week, with currency, weather and harvest pressure being the main market drivers.  Dryness concerns and global demand provided support in the European and domestic market at the start of the week, but this soon subsided. In the US, however, the market gain was higher across the week as markets were closed on Friday following the public holiday.

The US maize crop is mostly planted and emerged. It was reported last Monday (to 14 Jun) in the USDA crop progress report that 68% of the crop was in good or excellent condition, up 1 percentage point on the week. There have been some recent heavy rains across parts of the US Midwest which will have impacted some spray and fertiliser applications, but there is no huge concern for this crop yet. Weather over the next week is forecast to be benign and continue to help development.

The on-going heatwave across Europe supported prices. This is most notable for spring crops such as maize, while winter wheat crops are near maturity and are therefore less vulnerable. Meanwhile, European harvest pressure helped cap prices, with 4% of French winter barley (to 15 Jun) harvested ahead of the 5-year average (FranceAgriMer).

The key watchpoint over the next week for our domestic market is political stability and currency movement given Keir Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister this morning. For global grains, the focus will be on where the price of oil goes given the US-Iran deal, and the heatwave in France. This will have implications on their maize crop if the hot, dry conditions continue into July.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Delivered feed wheat (into East Anglia, Nov-26) was quoted at £179.50/t, down £1.00/t across the week.

Bread wheat (into North West, Nov-26) was quoted at £219.00/t, unchanged across the week. While in Yorkshire, bread wheat (Nov-26) was quoted at £215.50/t, with no comparison across the week.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract decreased by 2.7% in £/t from Friday 12 to Friday 19 June, closing at £442.58/t.

The futures closed below the 20-day and 50-day rolling average levels. The next support level is £430/t, which is calculated from the Paris futures level of €500/t. 

The relative strength index (RSI) decreased from 49 to 46 Friday to Friday, moving closer to the oversold zone (30).

Global oilseeds markets were mixed last week, with support for Chicago soyabeans and pressure on rapeseed and canola markets.

Chicago soyabean futures Nov-26 contract increased by 1.0%, rebounding from their lowest level in four months. Prices were supported by some activity in US exports and market rumours that China was interested in buying US-origin soyabeans.

However, Chicago soyabean oil futures (Dec-26) dropped significantly, by 5.6%, under pressure from the downward trend in crude oil prices, which closed at $80.57/barrel on Friday, down 7.7% week on week.

Crude oil was pressured mainly by easing Middle East supply risk and expectations of more barrels returning to the market. The biggest market pressure was the US-Iran interim deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which reduced fears of disruption and raised expectations of resumed Iranian and Gulf exports. However, this conflict is developing by the hour and remains a critical watchpoint.

This pressure in crude oil fed into rapeseed markets, as Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola futures (Nov-26) decreased by 3.1% and 4.3% respectively over week. The decrease in Paris rapeseed futures was partly limited by the weaker euro against the US dollar.

For demand, US net export sales of soyabeans for 2025/26 totalled 424.9 Kt for the week ending 11 June, which was higher than the previous week, and surpassed the high end of trade estimates. A total of 304.1 kt of the 2026 crop was sold, which was in-line with market expectations.

USDA’s crop progress report estimates (to 14 Jun) that 66% of the planted crop is in good or excellent condition, which is consistent with last year's figures for this time of year, and an increase on the 65% recorded the previous week. Further updated figures will be released this evening, which will be a key market focus given the crop will be entering critical development in the coming weeks.

France’s ministry of Agriculture and Food forecast French winter rapeseed production at 4.65 Mt for 2026, which is a marginal increase on last year's figure of 4.63 Mt, increases in area is offset by a modest yield decline, some of the recent heatwave will have added to this yield impact.

Indonesia is set to introduce its B50 biodiesel mandate on 1 July, blending 50% palm oil-based biodiesel with 50% conventional diesel. Indonesia revived its plan to increase the biodiesel content of its fuel from 40% to 50%, in response to oil supply disruptions following attacks on Iran by the US and Israel. This mandate can drive the general sentiment of the vegetable oil complex that feeds into global rapeseed prices.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £441.50/t in Friday’s survey, down £10.00/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery decreased by £10.00/t, to £451.00/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £456.50/t, down £9.00/t on the week.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

The latest UK trade data from HMRC shows both wheat (152 Kt) and maize (232 Kt) imports decreased in April compared to March. The total for the season so far (July 2025 - April 2026) for wheat is 2.02 Mt, down 22% on the same period last season. Season-to-date maize imports are down 25% compared to last season, at 2.00 Mt.

Barley exports for the season so far reached 414.9 Kt, but the total remained behind last year’s pace of 577.2 Kt. 40.2 Kt was exported in April 2026. Meanwhile, oat exports so far this season totalled 86.3 Kt, with 7.8 Kt exported in April.

For more information on the agricultural price index and the impact of the Middle East conflict on UK farm input costs, see AHDB's recent analysis.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

n/a = not available

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