Arable Market Report - 18 August 2025

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

UK feed wheat futures continued to move lower last week (Friday to Friday), unfortuntely breaking through the ‘support level’ of £170/t. When analysing price trends, a ‘support line’ is seen as a level that it may be harder for prices to fall below.

The relative strength index (RSI) eased from 36 to 21, moving to levels described as ‘oversold’ in technical analysis and showing the significant downward market momentum. An RSI at ‘oversold’ levels can also indicate this is a time to watch markets more closely.

Find out more about the graphs in this report and how to use them.

UK grain markets remain under pressure as Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures hit new contract lows last week, including on Friday (£167.00/t). The pound remained near stable against the euro, the European harvest continued with a positive outlook for French wheat as well as the strong US maize harvest projection weighed on prices.

In Europe, French soft wheat quality is positive so far, showing better protein content than in 2024 and specific weights above the five-year average (FranceAgriMer). Meanwhile, in Germany, harvesting has resumed after earlier rain delays.

Paris wheat futures steadied midweek, supported by talk of German sales to Algeria and French shipments to Egypt amid limited early Black Sea supply. Speculative traders have also reduced net short positions, hinting that they may believe that the downward trend may be easing. However, the continued strength of the euro vs US dollar limited the support. 

The pound moved up from £1= €1.1547 to €1.1578 over the week, though went as high as €1.1606 midweek (LSEG). This added pressure to UK feed wheat futures, forcing them lower to maintain competitiveness in wider markets.

The USDA now predicts US maize production at 425.3 Mt, up 13% higher than in 2024 and the highest on record. This prediction was 26.3 Mt higher than last month’s production and well above analysts' expectations. As a result, multiple Chicago wheat contracts  went to new contract lows. While Chicago maize prices also fell initially, strong export sales and short covering by speculative traders helped prices recover at the end of the week.

Russia’s 2025 grain harvest is progressing steadily, with 75 Mt collected from nearly half of the planted area (Agricultural Ministry). This could put the country on track to meet the Agriculture Ministry’s forecast of 135 Mt, including 83-87 Mt of wheat. The 2025 forecast would slightly exceed 2024’s output (125.9 Mt, FAO).

In the southern hemisphere, Argentina’s 2025/26 maize area is set to rise by 15–20% (Rosario Grain Exchange). Maize area prospects are supported by good soil moisture ahead of planting starting in September and a shift away from soyabeans due to a decline in their relative profitability.

Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (September delivery) was quoted at £167.50/t at Thursday’s close, down 2.50/t from the previous week.

Bread wheat delivered into the Northamptonshire in October was quoted at £198.50/t, down £5.00/t on the week.

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) finished last week below the 20-day moving average again. The contract did approach the £400/t support level on Wednesday, but the support level remained valid and prices ended the week slightly up in £/t (Friday-Friday). 

The relative strength index (RSI) decreased from 46 to 41 during the week, indicating the decreasing price trend of late.

Find out more about the graphs in this report and how to use them

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) increased last week, finishing at €473.75/t, up €5.50/t (1.2%) from the previous Friday. Chicago soybean futures (Nov-25) increased by 5.6% during the week. However, Winnipeg canola futures (Nov-25) decreased by 1.3% over the same period.

Winnipeg canola futures were highly volatile last week, coming under pressure on Tuesday. This followed the news that China had imposed a 75.8% anti-dumping duty on imports of canola from Canada, effective from last Thursday.

On the other hand, Chicago soybean futures increased after the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Tuesday due to world soybean ending stocks being lower than trade estimates. Also, in the week to 12 August, speculators decreased their net short position in Chicago soyabean futures.

The USDA’s WASDE report also reduced global oilseed production for the 2025/26 season by 3.3 Mt to 690.1 Mt, mainly due to lower soyabean and sunflower production. Global sunflower production was lowered by 1.2 Mt to 55.1 Mt due to hot and dry weather conditions resulting in lower yields in the EU, Ukraine, Turkey and Serbia.

EU imports of rapeseed for the 2025/26 season, which began in July, reached 0.31 Mt by 10 August, which is a 34% decrease compared to the same period last year. The EU's rapeseed harvest could exceed that of the previous season, reducing the need for imports. Nevertheless, the current level of EU rapeseed imports is higher than in the 2023/24 season.

In terms of vegetable oils, Oil World (https://www.oilworld.biz/) is forecasting that India, the largest importer, could increase its purchasing volume in the 2025/26 season. This is primarily due to increased palm oil imports.

Malaysian palm oil futures (Nov-25) increased by 5.6% last week (Friday to Friday) supported by improving export data. However, the recent decrease in crude oil futures prices means that vegetable oil is less attractive for biodiesel production, which limited price gains for palm oil.

Rapeseed to be delivered into Erith on the harvest contract was quoted at £407.50/t on Friday, unchanged on the week.

Liverpool and East Anglia (same contract) delivery were quoted at £408.00/t and £406.50/t respectively, also both unchanged on the week.

AHDB released production cost forecasts for 2025/26 season. Unfortunately, it suggests that UK crop production costs are set to rise in 2026, mainly due to higher fertiliser prices, though most other input costs remain relatively stable.

UK trade data for June 2025 was released last week (14 August), with export levels below average after a lacklustre season overall. The complete data for the 2024/25 season also confirms that wheat and maize imports reached the highest levels on electronic records (back to 1992).

On Thursday (21 August), Defra is set to release ex-farm cereal stocks data, providing tonnage estimates for wheat, barley, and oats stored on farms in England and Wales at the end of June. Also on Thursday, AHDB will release data on cereal stocks held by merchants, ports and co-operatives at the end of June.

After our latest UK Harvest Progress Report was published (Friday 08 August), we discovered an error in the data and the report has been withdrawn. For more information, please see our Harvest progress webpage.

Our fourth harvest progress report is due to be released this Friday (22 August), with the latest updates on harvest progression by region, including data on yields and quality.

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