Arable Market Report – 15 June 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

UK feed wheat futures continued to follow the pressure in the Paris futures, as the markets ended down across the week.

The Nov-26 contract lost £1.10/t or 0.6%, to end Friday’s trading at £179.40/t (green line with markers, Figure 1). This is below both the 20-day (dashed black line, Figure 1) and 50-day rolling average (solid back line, Figure 1).

Global grain markets ended mixed last week. However, the general sentiment was market pressure. Driving this was favourable weather in the USA, lower crude oil prices, higher global wheat inventories forecast and northern hemisphere harvest pressure.

Last Thursday the USDA released the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The report was broadly neutral to slightly bearish for grains.

Wheat was the main supportive element, with USDA trimming US production and ending stocks, but that was offset by global wheat inventories increasing, larger South American maize crop estimates and a higher global maize carryout, which kept overall sentiment under pressure.

In Europe, improved crop prospects weighed on the market, as late spring rainfall eased earlier drought concerns and boosted confidence in the region’s wheat harvest.

Crop conditions in France, Germany and Poland have recovered after recent heat and dry spells, while additional rain in eastern Europe has also supported yield potential.

Looking forward, the weather in the US Midwest is going to be a price driver in the coming weeks. Now most of the US maize crop is planted, the market will be sensitive to any hot and dry spells until the end of July.

Further to that, just announced this morning, the USA and Iran have agreed to end the war. President Trump reported that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, with a deal expected to be signed this Friday.

Events can change between now and Friday, but an end to this conflict would be bearish for grains in the short term because it eases energy and freight costs, reduces fertiliser-cost pressure, and removes some geopolitical risk premium from the market.

It could also soften wheat and maize prices indirectly if crude oil falls and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalises, though the impact would depend on how quickly trade flows and energy markets settle.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Delivered cereals were down across the week, following the UK futures market Thursday to Thursday. Delivered feed wheat (into East Anglia, Nov-26) was quoted at £180.50/t, down £1.00/t across the week. Delivered feed wheat (into Yorkshire, Jun-26) was quoted at £197.00/t, down £1.00/t across the week.

Slightly more pressure for milling wheat, as bread wheat (into Northants, Nov-26) was quoted at £208.00/t, down £2.50/t across the week. While in the northwest bread wheat (Nov-26) was quoted at £219.00/t, down £3.00/t over the same period.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract increased by 0.1% in £/t from Friday 5 to Friday 12 June, closing at £455.04/t (Figure 2).

Last week, prices attempted to break through the nearest resistance level of £460/t, but then fell back.

Futures closed below the 20-day rolling average level. The next support level is the 50-day rolling average, which is near £448/t.  

The relative strength index (RSI) decreased from 56 to 49 Friday to Friday (Figure 2), indicating a potential price correction.

Decreasing weather risks for oilseed production in the main producing and exporting countries, coupled with a drop in crude oil prices, put pressure on prices last week.

However, Paris rapeseed showed some resistance to this pressure over the week. The Nov-26 Paris rapeseed contract ended last week up 0.3%, while it dropped significantly this morning, when the market opened.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures fell by 6.2% last week, reaching $87.33/barrel. Prices have fallen by more than 4% at the start of this week. The main reason for this is a deal between the USA and Iran and the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz reopening.

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA has increased the estimated global soyabean ending stocks for 2026/27 by 0.1 Mt to 124.9 Mt, primarily due to higher stocks in Argentina.

However, the rapeseed forecast shows that consumption has increased by more than production. Consequently, global ending stocks for the 2026/27 season have fallen by 0.8% compared to May's figures. 

Grain trade association Coceral forecasts 2026 rapeseed production in the EU-27 at 20.5 Mt, compared to 20.1 Mt in March. The return to average levels from the strong 2025 yields will be offset by a significant increase in plantings, from 6.3 Mha to 6.5 Mha.

In South America, Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange raised their 2025/26 soya bean production estimate from 50.0 Mt to 51.5 Mt. Also, there is a huge Brazilian soya bean crop being exported to the global market currently given their recent large harvest.

The latest USDA crop progress report (to 07 Jun) estimates that 65% of US soya beans are in good or excellent condition. This represents a 1% decrease on the previous week and is lower than last year's figure of 68%. Market participants are focusing on the influence of the weather on crops; a further update will be released this evening from the USDA.

The US Climate Prediction Centre is forecasting El Niño conditions, which are expected to strengthen during the northern hemisphere winter of 2026/27. This is a critical watchpoint for the market given the influence this weather event could have on southern hemisphere oilseed production.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £451.50/t in Friday’s survey, down £1.50/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery decreased by £1.00/t, to £461.00/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £465.50/t, down £3.00/t on the week.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

Last week, AHDB released the results of the 2026 Planting and Variety Survey, which showed a decrease (12%) year-on-year in the area of barley for harvest 2026 in Great Britain (GB). It also showed a smaller UK oat area, but larger areas in GB for oilseed rape (OSR), and to a lesser extent, wheat.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

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