Analyst insight: Mixed outlook for crops as GB barley area falls

Today, AHDB released the results of the 2026 Planting and Variety Survey, which showed a sharp (12%) year-on-year fall in the area of barley for harvest 2026 in Great Britain (GB). It also showed a smaller UK oat area, but larger areas in GB for oilseed rape (OSR), and to a lesser extent, wheat.

Key takeaways:

• Lowest GB barley area since 2010 is likely to mean a smaller crop for 2026/27, but demand will be key to the impact on malting markets
• GB wheat area rise is likely to boost 2026/27 production
• The fall in the UK oat area, plus lower stocks, is likely to tighten availability in 2026/27
• Larger GB OSR area could reduce our reliance on imports in 2026/27.

GB barley area hits a 16-year low

At 930 Kha, the survey estimate is the lowest total GB barley area since 2010 and 17% below the five-year (2021-2025) average. Meanwhile, the Scottish barley area is down 13% to its lowest level since the 1960s.

The falls are driven by spring barley and reflect the lower malting demand and prices for barley. Demand for alcohol has been hit by the cost of living both at home and globally, with generational and diet-led changes to consumer habits also contributing. This has had stark knock-on impacts on the demand for malting barley, with the UK BMD sector forecast in 2025/26 to use the least barley on record going back to 1990/91.

The poorer yields for many spring cereal crops last year may also have factored into cropping decisions.

Using this area estimate, plus the lowest, average and highest yields from the past five years (2021-2025), gives us insights into the potential 2026 crop size (Figure 1).

Figure 1. GB barley production scenarios

Yields would need to exceed the highest level of the past five years (6.63t/ha in 2022) to avoid a fall in production (Scenario C in Figure 1).  This seems unlikely given 2026 crop conditions at the end of May due to the dry spring.

The lower area, plus lower expected carry-over stocks, means that UK barley availability is likely to tighten next season (2026/27).

The share of varieties approved for malting, brewing and distilling has fallen to 62% in 2026, from 65% in 2025 and 68% in 2024. This change in varieties, together with the overall year-on-year fall in barley area, indicates a smaller area of barley suitable for malting, brewing and distilling.

Usually, a lower area combined with a lower malting share would put more emphasis on the current year’s yields and quality to support availability for malting, brewing and distilling. However, the impact in 2026/27 will also depend on how demand develops in the months ahead.

Wheat production could rise in 2026

In total, the GB wheat area has risen 3% year-on-year to 1,711 Kha. This is 1% above the five-year average and close to levels last seen in 2023 when we last had good autumn planting conditions.

The larger area could support domestic wheat production in 2026; we would need to see yields even lower than last year for production to be below that harvested in 2025.

But there are differences between the types of wheat grown with UK Flour Millers Group 1 and 3 varieties both taking larger shares of the total area than last year.

Oat availability likely to tighten

At 168 Kha, the 2026 UK oat area is down 15% year-on-year and the smallest area since 2023, likely reflecting the pressure on spot oat prices over the past year.

This fall in area is likely to mean a smaller UK oat crop in 2026, which, combined with expectations for lower stocks at the end of 2025/26, points to tighter availability next season. The extent of the tightening will depend on whether yields can rise from 2025’s low levels, which is uncertain given oat crop conditions after the dry spring. 

Yields and quality will be key to supporting availability for the domestic milling industry. Over the past five seasons, the industry has used 503 Kt on average per season, equating to just over half of production.

Reduced reliance on OSR imports?

The OSR area has risen 49% year-on-year to an estimated 358 Kha, supported by good yield experiences last year and a more favourable margin outlook than cereals.

However, the 2026 GB OSR area is still below that grown in 2023, when higher prices following the start of the war in Ukraine helped the area to rise.

OSR crops looked well at the end of May, which if sustained, could mean yields are above-average for a second year. Alongside the larger area, this gives hope that our rapeseed production could rise in 2026 and reduce reliance on imports in 2026/27.

Sign up to receive the latest analysis and more from AHDB.

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.