Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic overview

The economies of sub-Saharan Africa have faced numerous challenges over the last few years. However, projections of population increases will present opportunities for UK exports.

Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been relatively slow in sub-Saharan Africa compared to advanced economies around the world. The region is now experiencing a squeeze in finances and high borrowing costs.

Elevated inflation levels have limited household spending, especially for those with a low income and already in a vulnerable position. In 2019 35% of the sub-Saharan Africa population were estimated to live on under $2.15 a day). The IMF has reported that in 2022 132 million people in the region were ‘acutely food-insecure’.

Public debt is also high and at levels not seen for decades as aid budgets have been on a downward trajectory. Consequently, there is more reliance by governments on expensive market-based funding.

As a result of these factors GDP growth in 2023 is expected to fall to 3.6% (Table 1), though this is an average and some countries have a more positive outlook. Out of the countries shown in Table 1, growth in South Africa’s GDP in 2023 is stagnant, while for Equatorial Guinea, a decline is expected.

In 2023 South Africa is in a ‘national state of disaster’ due to frequent power shortages resulting in blackouts which have impacted households and businesses. The IMF forecast some recovery in 2024 (with GDP growth of 1.8%) as it expects some resolution to the energy crisis.

Senegal’s economy is expected to improve as it embarks on capitalising on recent offshore oil and gas discoveries. Senegal’s GDP growth is forecast at 10.6% in 2024.

Overall, GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 4.2% in 2024 due to consumers spending more on goods and services and investment.

Table 1. Real GDP growth in selected sub-Saharan Africa countries

	2021	2022 estimate	2023 forecast
Sub-Saharan Africa	4.8	3.9	3.6
Middle-income countries	4.5	3.4	2.9
Angola*	1.1	2.8	3.5
Benin	7.2	6.0	6.0
Botswana	11.8	6.4	3.7
Cameroon*	3.6	3.4	4.3
Côte d'Ivoire	7.0	6.7	6.2
Equatorial Guinea*	-3.2	1.6	-1.8
Gabon*	1.5	2.8	3.0
Ghana	5.4	3.2	1.6
Kenya	7.5	5.4	5.3
Namibia	2.7	3.8	2.8
Nigeria*	3.6	3.3	3.2
Republic of Congo*	1.5	2.8	4.1
Senegal	6.1	4.7	8.3
South Africa	4.9	2.0	0.1
Low-income countries	5.4	5.1	5.4
Central African Republic	1.0	0.4	2.5
Chad	-1.1	2.5	3.5
Democratic Republic of Congo	6.2	6.6	6.3
Ethiopia	6.3	6.4	6.1
Liberia	5.0	4.8	4.3
Madagascar	5.7	4.2	4.2
Malawi	4.6	0.8	2.4
Sierra Leone	4.1	2.8	3.1
Zimbabwe	8.5	3.0	2.5

*Oil exporter

Source: IMF

Population on the up

Population modelling studies have predicted that the number of people living in sub-Saharan Africa could treble to 3.07 billion in 2100 (35% of the global population), compared with 2017. The UN projects the figure to be just under 3.5 billion: both estimates represent around one-third of the global population.

Nigeria has the highest population in sub-Saharan Africa (211 million in 2021, World Bank), followed by Ethiopia (118 million in 2021, World Bank). In terms of population growth, the populations of Nigeria and Ethiopia are forecast to increase by around 25% between 2022 and 2032 (UN Population Division).

Many other countries – including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic and Chad – are expected to see their populations increase by more than a third over the same period.

On average, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase by 27% over the next decade, compared with a 9% increase for the global population.

Continue reading about the sub-Saharan Africa market

How much do they consume?

Market access and barriers to trade

Consumer insight

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