What’s influencing grain markets this week? Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) rose by £1.00/t yesterday, closing at £176.45/t. The May-26 contract also increased, gaining £1.45/t to finish at £188.90/t.
• Global wheat markets were mixed. Chicago wheat futures (Dec-25) fell by 0.3%, while Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) rose slightly by 0.1%. The fast-advancing US wheat harvest weighed on US prices, whereas slower farmer selling lent support to European prices. See below for more factors influencing grain markets.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) rose by €2.00/t, closing at €479.75/t. The increase followed upward movement across the vegetable oil market, as ongoing concern about Canadian canola yields continued to support prices. Dec-25 Chicago soyabean oil and Nov-25 Winnipeg canola futures also saw gains, rising by 0.3% and 1.1% respectively.

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Domestic wheat futures have remained relatively flat over the last week. So, let’s take a look at the key drivers at the moment, and what’s likely to influence the market in the coming days.

US crop conditions and harvest progress

Harvest is underway across the Northern Hemisphere, with the US in particular now making swift progress. By 6 July, 53% of the US winter wheat crop had been harvested, up from 37% the previous week, and in line with the five-year average of 54%.

Spring wheat conditions weakened noticeably last week, with only 50% rated as in good to excellent condition, falling short of the 53% forecast and sharply down from 75% recorded at this point last year. Focus is now turning to maize crop conditions – read more on this in yesterday’s Grain market daily.

US tariffs

Uncertainty is growing around ongoing trade negotiations between the US and key trade partners. The US has extended the deadline for ‘reciprocal tariffs’ to 1 August to allow more time for trade negotiations. Also, starting on that date, a 25% tariff will be applied to imports from Japan and South Korea. As major importers of US grains, any retaliatory tariffs raise concern over export demand, and weigh on prices.

Russian Supplies

After raising its production estimate last month by 0.2 Mt to 83.0 Mt, Sovecon has now increased its forecast for Russia’s 2025/26 wheat exports to 42.9 Mt, up from 40.8 Mt previously. This upward revision is supported by the government’s removal of wheat export tax effective from 9 July, which is expected to improve the competitiveness of Russian exports.

Weak export demand

EU wheat export demand remains weak. Data from the EU Commission released yesterday showed that soft wheat exports for 2024/25 reached 20.33 Mt by the end of the season (30 June), down 35% from 2023/24. This steady export pace, partly due to a stronger euro, has continued to keep European wheat prices under pressure as of late.

Looking ahead

In terms of what could influence prices in the coming days, the USDA is due to release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday (11 July). This could influence prices depending on how the final figures compare to market expectations. Something to keep an eye on.

As can be expected at this point in the season, weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere will also remain a key watchpoint.

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