What's driving grain prices this week? Grain market daily

• May-25 UK feed wheat futures ended yesterday’s session at £165.90/t, down £0.50/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-25 contract closed at £186.15/t, up £0.55/t over the same period. Read more on what’s driving domestic grain futures below.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) closed at €526.50/t, up €9.75/t from Monday’s close. New crop (Nov-25) gained €4.00/t over the same period, ending the session at €490.75/t.
• Paris rapeseed prices followed vegetable oil markets up yesterday, on the back of further US tariff news, which is expected to benefit US soyabean prices. Support in US markets later in the day also came as a coalition between a US biofuel and oil company met with the Environmental Protection Agency to discuss higher federal mandates for biomass diesel blending (LSEG).

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Old crop domestic wheat futures have remained under pressure over the last couple of weeks, largely on the back of news surrounding US tariffs and a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. However, new crop futures have seen some marginal support over the last two days. So, what are the key factors to look out for at the moment?

US tariff updates

Any news on further tariffs continues to impact global grain markets. Later today, it is expected that President Trump will announce new reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners. The new duties, due to be announced at 8pm (GMT) this evening, are expected to come into effect straight away.

Black Sea negotiations

Last week, Ukraine and Russia agreed a deal, brokered by the US, that would ensure the safe passage of ships in the Black Sea, aiding agricultural exports from the region. The Kremlin has emphasised that this agreement is subject to the US supporting Russia in restoring access to global markets for agricultural and fertiliser exports. As such, the export pace from the Black Sea is a key watchpoint.

As at 26 March, Ukrainian wheat exports had totalled 963 Kt for the month, compared to March last year when exports reached 2.07 Mt. Russian exports also remain steady, with Rusogrotrans estimating that 1.85 Mt of wheat was exported in March 2025, versus 4.74 Mt in the same month a year ago. 

Dryness in Australia

A supportive factor for new crop prices yesterday was reports that Australian wheat production in 2025/26 could drop by 16% (LSEG). The world’s third-largest wheat exporter is due to start planting this month, though it’s reported that parts of Victoria and South Australia are expected to struggle with severe dryness. The 2025/26 Australian wheat crop was pegged at 28.6 Mt by traders in the Reuters poll, down from the 30.5 Mt estimated by ABARES in March. Something to keep an eye on for longer-term price direction.

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