What can we expect from UK wheat supply in 2025/26? Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) fell marginally yesterday (£0.20/t) to close at £168.80/t. The Nov-25 contract ended the session at £187.25/t, unchanged from Tuesday’s close.
• Old crop domestic futures followed US grain markets down yesterday. Markets are under pressure due to expectations of increased maize plantings in the US, with the USDA’s planting intentions report due to be published on Monday. Meanwhile, Paris grain futures were supported yesterday. Despite a potential deal to ease restrictions on Russian exports to the international market, reports suggest there will be little immediate impact.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures closed at €513.00/t, up €7.00/t from Tuesday’s close. The Nov-25 contract fell €1.50/t over the same period. Old crop prices continued to track movements in Winnipeg canola, where the May-25 futures contract gained 1.9% over yesterday’s session.
• The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, delivered the Spring Statement yesterday, updating Parliament and the nation on the economy, public finances, and economic objectives. AHDB explored what this update means for UK farmers.

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Earlier today, AHDB published the latest UK cereals supply and demand estimates for the 2024/25 season. A key change from January’s wheat figures was a drop in domestic consumption. This was largely on the back of a fall in usage by the bioethanol sector. However, a decline in forecast imports and an increase in estimated exports left ending stocks relatively unchanged (up 12 Kt from January).

So, with a clearer picture of carry out stocks at the end of the season, what could this mean for overall wheat supply in the coming marketing year?

Last month, we took a look at potential scenarios for the 2025 UK wheat crop by using AHDB’s Early Bird Survey (EBS) results, combined with five-year minimum, average and maximum yields. Anecdotal reports suggested that a slightly higher area of wheat had been planted than reported in the EBS. This was likely due to concerns over the wet start to the autumn, and as such, doubts over whether winter plantings would be completed (after the survey had taken place). Therefore, adjusting the EBS wheat area up by 5%, and looking at an average yield over the last five years (2020-2024), gives a potential 2025 wheat production figure of 13.1 Mt.

Looking at the current estimate for carry-in stocks next season, combined with 13.1 Mt of UK wheat produced this summer, suggests supplies (excluding imports) will return to more ‘normal’ levels in 2025/26.

While it is too early to predict what we will import next season, a more average supply of stocks and domestic production suggests the import pace will also fall back from this season’s record highs. However, the quality and yield of next season’s crop is still very much a question mark. This, and any changes to our domestic requirement of wheat next season, will of course impact how much is imported.

To gain more insight into what to expect from harvest 2025, look out for AHDB’s next crop development report due out tomorrow.    

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