US winter wheat crop condition in focus: Grain market daily

• May-25 UK feed wheat futures ended yesterday’s session at £171.25/t, up £2.60/t from Friday’s close. The Nov-25 contract closed at £190.50/t, up £4.00/t over the same period.
• The domestic market followed Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures higher yesterday, driven by dry weather forecasts and flooding in parts of the US, as well as the USDA crop conditions report (read more on this below). Chicago wheat (May-25) and Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) both increased by 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) closed at €516.25/t yesterday, down €0.75/t from Friday’s close. The Nov-25 contract dropped €0.25/t over the same period, finishing at €478.00/t. European rapeseed prices were pressured by Chicago soyabean oil, with the May-25 contract falling 1.5% amid concerns over US tariffs.

Sign up to receive the Weekly Market Report and Grain Market Daily from AHDB.

The condition of the US winter wheat crop has been in the spotlight due to ongoing dry weather in key growing areas.

Yesterday, the USDA released its first crop progress report for the 2025 season, providing an initial update on winter wheat conditions. As of 6 April, 48% of the US winter wheat crop was rated as good or excellent, compared with 56% at the same time last year. In addition, 21% of the crop was rated as poor or very poor, compared with 12% last year.

While lagging last year, overall, the US winter wheat crop condition is much better than in 2022 and 2023, when drought severely impacted yields. The percentage of crops rated as good or excellent this year exceeded the average trade estimate of 47%, according to a Reuters poll.

However, as expected, some regions are feeling the effects of the drought more acutely. Kansas and Oklahoma, two of the largest winter wheat-producing states, have 17% and 18% of their crops rated as poor or very poor, respectively, compared to 14% and 8% at this time last year.

Drought monitor report

The latest USDA data shows that drought conditions are spreading across the US winter wheat belt, raising concerns about crop yields. As of 1 April, 37% of the US winter wheat area was affected by drought, up from 14% the week before and 34% two weeks ago.  This follows below-normal rainfall in parts of the Midwest and Great Plains over the past month. Kansas and Oklahoma have seen a notable increase in the proportion of their winter wheat areas impacted by drought compared to the previous week.

Summary

Winter wheat in many states in the US is still in its vegetative growth stage, which can be affected by soil moisture and temperature. As the crops move towards their reproductive stages in the coming weeks, the market will likely become more reactive to any adverse weather.

At present, 5% of the US winter wheat crop is starting to form and emerge its seed heads, while 3% of spring wheat has been planted. The weather forecast shows rising temperatures in the US wheat belt next week (World Agweather), which will be a key watch, particularly as US winter wheat plantings are estimated to be lower this year.

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.