US Soyabean crop in focus: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) fell by £1.25/t (-0.7%) on yesterday, closing at £178.75/t. The May-26 contract also eased, down £0.65/t (-0.3%) to £190.15/t.
• Domestic wheat prices tracked global markets lower, under pressure from profit-taking and expectations of ample global supplies. These factors outweighed concerns about a smaller Russian crop. Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) dropped by 1.5% and 1.4% respectively.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) gained €4.00/t, finishing at €485.25/t. The European rapeseed market found support from strength across the wider vegetable oil complex, with Nov-25 Winnipeg canola and Dec-25 Chicago soyabean oil futures rising by 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively. Adding to this, forecasts of a smaller Ukrainian rapeseed crop in 2025/26 and news of a planned 10% export tax on Ukrainian rapeseed from 1 September 2025 also lent support to market sentiment.

Sign up to receive the Weekly Market Report and Grain Market Daily from AHDB.

The US soyabean crop is now entering its most critical phase for yield development, with flowering well underway and pod setting beginning. This marks the start of the key reproductive stage, where yield potential is highly dependent on favourable weather.

As a result, attention is turning to US weather and crop conditions, which could influence global oilseed prices, including rapeseed in the UK.

Current crop conditions

Crop condition ratings offer an early indication of yield potential. As at the end of week 29 (20 July), the USDA rated 68% of the US soyabean crop in good or excellent condition. This is slightly down from 70% the previous week, reflecting dry conditions in parts of the soyabean belt.

However, the rating is in line with the same point last year and remains well above the five-year average of 60%.

Why does this matter for UK growers?

The US is a key player in global soyabean exports, and its harvest outlook has a direct influence on oilseed markets, including rapeseed in the UK.

Although US soyabean production looks set to be lower than last year, global production is likely to rise. However, with consumption also set to rise, any potential drop in US yields could tighten global supply and lend support to prices. For UK growers, this could translate into stronger rapeseed values. On the other hand, favourable US weather could ease market pressure and weigh on prices.

Looking Ahead

With the US soyabean pod setting progressing, the next few weeks will be crucial for determining yield potential. Cooler-than-average temperatures (around 2–4°F below normal) are forecast across the Plains and western regions, which may help reduce heat stress during this important stage.

Weekly USDA crop progress reports, along with changing weather patterns, will be key indicators of market direction.

For UK growers, keeping up to date with these developments can support informed decision making, including pricing decisions and timely marketing as the season moves forward.

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.