Ukraine harvest and exports behind in 2025: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) closed £1.50/t (0.85%) up, at £178.95
• Domestic feed wheat futures followed European futures on news of the tariff deal between the US and the EU
• The euro dollar exchange rate closed at $1.1588 yesterday (LSEG). This caused a correction in European futures. Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) closed €2.75/t up, finishing at €207.50/t
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) also moved on price correction, closing up €0.75/t (0.15%) to finish at €486.50/t
• Chicago soyabeans (Nov-25) closed 0.93% down on weather remaining favourable in key soyabean production areas

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Ukraine is often referred to as Europe’s breadbasket. Agriculture plays a key part in funding Ukraine’s economy, last year agricultural produce made up 59% ($24.5bn) of the country’s exports.

The year prior to the Russian invasion, in 2021, Ukraine was the fifth largest exporter of wheat in the world and a total of 106Mt of cereals and oilseeds were exported, last year the figure was 76 Mt (-28%).

Ukraine’s agriculture minister warned the grain harvest could be down 10%, with oilseeds down 5% on last year for 2025.

Harvest is now underway in the region and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine published harvest data up until the 24 July.

The current harvest pace is behind that of 2024; dry conditions have helped with harvest progress but have also hindered yields.

The dry conditions have withered crops, with key regions such as Kherson which makes up 6% of total grain harvest losing up to 80,000ha (32%) of the region’s area because of dryness.

Exports 

Most agricultural exports leave Ukraine by sea, the three main ports in Ukraine remain open but have been under heavy attack, forcing ships to wait for security clearance before leaving pushing up export costs.

Agricultural exports compared to the same period last year are significantly down.

Total grains and legumes exports for the 2025/26 season so far are at just 31.5% of where they were last year. With barley seeing the largest drop at just 25.8%.

Weather this season as well as labour shortages and increased costs from the ongoing war have put strain on Ukrainian farmers.

Without significant state help, the Minister stated that, 10-20% of farmers may not be able to sow next season - with many in debt already.

Between July and November 2024, the European Union remained a key outlet for Ukrainian cereals, absorbing approximately 35% of wheat exports.

Maize shipments to the bloc were even more substantial at 60%, while barley volumes lagged.

Looking ahead

The decline in Ukrainian production and export capacity may mean we see some longer-term support to European cereal prices through late 2025 and into 2026.

This may also create some export opportunities for UK farmers, as European countries look to fill the supply gap left by Ukraine. It’s a key country to keep eyes on going forward.

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