Friday, 2 August 2019
Nov-19 wheat futures closed down £1.25/t at £146.00/t. This was inspired by Paris Dec-19 futures losing €1.50/t to close at €178.25/t. European harvest progress continues at a pace with French wheat harvest 87% complete and barley 92% complete at July 29th (FranceAgriMer).
Chicago soyabeans are dropping like a stone this week as the China/US trade war again weighs on market sentiment. This had dragged Nov-19 Paris rapeseed futures €3.25/t lower earlier in the week but stopped the rot yesterday and closed at €376.25/t.
Sterling will partially insulate the UK market against these € and $ market losses as the anxiety of a no-deal plunges the £ to new depths.
UK winter barley harvest 49% complete!
Despite changeable conditions recently a good proportion of winter barley and oilseed rape crops have been cut across England. The ADAS Harvest Progress Report now has a dedicated webpage and dashboard on our new Cereals and Oilseeds website. If you want to see the full dashboard click here.
Up to 30th July, 31% of the oilseed rape crop had been harvested. This progress is close to ‘normal’ but slightly behind progress made in 2017 and 2018. The yield estimate below is based on crop harvests in the South and East.
- Yield estimate: 3.1-3.4t/ha
- Oil content: 41-45%
- Moisture: 6-7%
The presence of adult cabbage stem flea beetle has been found with evidence of crops being affected by adult beetle feeding on pods. Yields have ranged from 2.0t/ha – 3.6t/ha with anecdotal reports of yields even above the top end of this range. Lodging has occurred across the country after recent heavy rainfall. Lodging is estimated at 5% of the GB crop with Yorkshire seeing higher rates circa 9%.
As we see the OSR harvest progress we are likely to see continued variation in yields. However, early indications against our AHDB planting survey area estimate give confidence in production estimates in the range of 1.7Mt.
Nearly half of the winter barley crop is estimated to have been harvested. Progress at 49% would equate to an area of circa 210kha. Again, harvest is slightly behind previous years but this isn’t posing a problem. Heavy rainfall prior to harvest has led to approximately 7% of crops lodging.
Yields are looking very good with ranges from 6-10t/ha. With export markets restricted by the Oct-31st Brexit deadline the high yields may add pressure to prices in south and east areas.
The yield and quality estimates are focussed on crops harvested in the South and East of England.
- Yield estimate: 7.9-8.2t/ha
- Specific Weight: 64-67kg/hl
- Screenings: 2-5%
- Nitrogen: 1.5-1.7%
- Moisture: 14% average
- Germination: 90-98%
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