Rapeseed planted area intentions see declines from a difficult last season: Grain Market Daily

Wednesday, 27 November 2019

Market Commentary

  • UK feed wheat futures (May-20) ended yesterday unchanged at £151.00/t. Meanwhile new crop (Nov-20) futures gained another £1.10/t, to close at £156.75/t, responding to continued planting woes and support from global markets.
  • Paris milling wheat futures (May-20) closed yesterday at €184.00/t, gaining €2.50/t since last Tuesday. Steady export demand has kept prices firm.
  • Chicago soyabean futures (Jan-20) have gained $0.83/t on yesterday’s close, to $325.27/t (12.30pm). The gain in soyabean futures ended a five day run of declines. The rise was checked by increased Chinese buying of South American supplies.

Rapeseed planted area intentions see declines from a difficult last season

Preliminary figures for GB planting intentions were released on Monday. Oilseed rape planting intentions have seen a 23% drop in area, to 406Kha, from last year. The figures focus on intentions rather than actual planted area, meaning the figures may change following above average rainfall levels for much of winter so far this season.

Last season the UK rapeseed area saw large declines as a result of a difficult growing season, with cabbage stem flea beetle (CSFB) damage prevalent throughout oilseed rape crops. Many growers opted to ‘rip up’ affected fields and replant with another crop where possible. Already this season there have been reports of CSFB damage creating establishment difficulties. As such, a reduction in planted area from current intentions or shifts in the area to be carried through to harvest remains a possibility.

EU28 rapeseed area for 2020/21 is estimated by Stratégie Grains at 5.8Mha, a slight increase of 200Kha from last year, but below the five-year average. The Stratégie Grains report from earlier in the month highlights the potential for cuts to planted area estimates in in the EU, particularly in France following challenging growing conditions.

With potentially tight production in 2020/21 both domestically and on the continent, EU import demand for rapeseed could stretch further beyond the 6.0Mt this year. So far this season 79% of EU rapeseed imports have been of Ukrainian origin, around 2.51Mt.

Ukrainian rapeseed plantings are seen rising marginally for 2020/21 to 1.09Mha, Ukraine could again feature heavily in EU rapeseed markets going forward.

In the New Year, the EBS survey will be conducted again to identify planting intentions following the wet winter. Oilseed rape area may again see revisions which if realised could further impact production figures.

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