Planting & Variety Survey is now open: Grain Market Daily

Market commentary

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £189.95/t, down £1.75/t on Tuesday’s close. The new crop contract (Nov-23) closed at £205.95/t gaining £0.25/t over the same period, widening the gap between old and new crop.
• New crop futures followed the Paris wheat market up yesterday, as traders assessed signs of renewed export demand, and awaited clarity over the Black Sea grain deal after Russia threatened to terminate the agreement.
• The Chicago market felt pressure on news of ample short-term global supplies, despite the risk of the Black Sea Initiative possibly ending mid-May. Furthermore, the market has been pressured by rain forecast in much of the US plains over the next seven days.
• Also weighing on the Chicago market was the data release from StatCan that shows Canadian farmers intend to plant 10.9Mha of wheat for harvest 2023, the most in 22 years.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at €457.25/t, gaining €15.00/t on Tuesday’s close. The same StatCan report estimated the canola area for harvest 2023 at 8.7Mha, up near 1% from last year, but below the average trade estimate of 8.8Mha.

Planting & Variety Survey is now open

It is the time of the year again when data collection starts for the AHDB Planting & Variety Survey (PVS).

The survey provides an estimate of the area and variety breakdown of cereals and oilseed rape to be harvested in the United Kingdom. This year’s survey will provide results for what we can expect from the 2023 harvest, ahead of harvest starting. It is the only pre-harvest set of results formally published with national coverage.

Data accuracy and transparency is key to functioning markets. As such, accuracy in data collection is vital. Therefore, it is critical that as AHDB, we produce accurate, unbiased data which the industry can trust.

However, we can only do this with your input. The data collection for this survey is now live and the full form can be accessed here, and will not take more than 5 minutes to complete.

Why is this information so important?

Knowing your domestic market is a key part of forming marketing strategies. The regional breakdown of UK crop area and varieties can help with this, by getting a regional breakdown this helps to determine local prices and identify opportunities for selling.

Further to that, accuracy… the AHDB is the only source of independent and impartial data that provides both area and variety data pre-harvest. The more responses we receive, the more accurate we can be. This survey allows us to give an early indication of cereal and oilseed output. In the past our data has aligned with DEFRA outputs, which are published several months after harvest.

As shown in the graph above for the wheat area, the PVS survey has near aligned with the DEFRA June Survey many times, which is released 5 months after the PVS.

Conclusion

Input from the sector is key in producing these statistics, to get the most accurate results possible. The full results will be published on the AHDB website at the beginning of July here. Full analysis of the data will be on the cereals and oilseeds market analysis web pages, so keep an eye out for the results.

Any further questions, you can email Cereals.MI@ahdb.org.uk

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