Northern hemisphere wheat harvest roundup: Grain market daily

• Nov-22 UK feed wheat futures gained £1.00/t from Tuesdays close yesterday to settle at £268.00/t.
• Oilseed markets across the board lost ground yesterday on the back of a change in fundamentals, with funds net selling CBOT soyabean and soyaoil, as well as a drop in crude oil prices.
• Nov-22 Paris rapeseed futures prices closed at €647.25/t yesterday, down €20.00/t from Tuesdays close.
• With harvest already well underway here in the UK due to the hot and dry conditions, tomorrow AHDB will be publishing the first Harvest Progress Report for 2022.

With hot dry conditions across much of the Northern Hemisphere, cereal harvest is progressing quickly. While the weather has enabled combines to keep rolling, there are questions over the quality and quantity of wheat crops in some of the key growing countries due to these somewhat extreme conditions.

Below is a roundup of harvest progress so far for some of the top wheat producers in the Northern Hemisphere:

France

With the hot and dry conditions in France, wheat harvest started about two weeks earlier than usual this year. As at the end of last week 50% of the total soft wheat area has been cut, compared with just 3% at the same point in 2021. Another week has now past and with favourable harvest conditions remaining in France, harvest will have continued at a pace. According to the French cooperative Axereal, winter cereal harvest is nearly complete (Refinitiv). In terms of the quality of the crop and yields, the extreme dry and hot conditions are likely to have had some impact. Axereal have also reported that from initial results, the general quality is good with satisfactory protein levels.

In its latest report Strategie Grains pegged soft wheat yields for France at 6.95t/ha for 2022, down from 7.12t/ha in 2021. While it is expected that yields in the south of the country will have been impacted by the hot and dry conditions, yields in the north have reportedly held up better.

US

The impact of drought and heat on the US winter wheat crop has been influencing markets for months. While the weather may have had an impact on crop conditions, similar to in Europe, it has allowed harvest to start and progress well. As at 17 July, 70% of the US winter wheat crop had been harvested according to the latest USDA crop conditions report. While harvest had been progressing quicker than average up to this point, it is now broadly in line with the average pace for this time of year (71% complete 2017-2021 average).

Russia

Russia is to have a bumper wheat crop this year which is expected to lead to a very large exportable surplus. As at 14 July Russia had cut 3.7Mha of wheat, 600Kha up from the same point in 2021 (SovEcon). Furthermore, yields are averaging at 4.2t/ha, up from 3.4t/ha at the same point last year. As harvest progresses across Russia we will see more information come forward in the coming weeks about the actual size of its crop.

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