Move to block calving shifts national milk production profile

We recently looked at how calving patterns have shifted over the last five years (2016 vs 2021), with more farmers adopting a defined calving system, with a particular uptake in block calving. In turn, this has had an impact on the seasonality of the national milk production profile.

We used our milk forecasting calculator to create a milk production profile based on the national calving patterns, split by group. Then we looked at how the changes in calving patterns between 2016 and 2021 impacted on that milk forecast.

Our analysis shows that the shift away from non-defined systems has reduced their contribution to GB monthly milk volumes by 2.8-3.3m litres per day compared to five years ago. The increase in AYR calving has partially offset this by contributing 0.9-1.1m litres more milk per day to monthly volumes. Both of these impacts are relatively stable through the year.

The more seasonal impact has come from the rise in block calvers. This has:

• Added 2.3m litres per day in April and in May, pushing up the spring peak by 1.2% compared with 2016
• Added 2.3m litres per day in October and 2.5m litres in November, helping to lift the previous seasonal trough
• Contributed only an additional 1.6m litres per day in July and 1.5m litres per day in August.

The net impact on GB milk production can be seen on the following chart.

Over the last five years, the shift in calving patterns has made the spring peak higher, lifting April and May each 1.2% (0.4m litres per day). It has also reduced milk production in the summer, dropping July by 0.7% (0.2m litres per day) and August by 1.0% (0.3m litres per day). In doing so, it has moved the seasonal trough from October/November to August/September.

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