What’s driving grain markets this week? Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) closed yesterday at £179.80/t, down £0.10/t from Monday’s close. Domestic prices followed global markets, with Chicago wheat down $0.83/t from the previous close, at $210.43
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) were up €4.25/t yesterday, to close at €483.50/t. This was driven partly by firmness in crude oil and the wider vegetable oils complex. Support also came from Chicago soybean futures (Nov-25) which were up $1.65/t to close at $375.30/t after a lower-than-expected crop rating in the USDA’s crop progress report on Monday. In total, 67% of the crop was rated as being in good to excellent condition

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Despite some support for domestic prices on Monday, following further escalation in the Black Sea region, grain markets were slightly bearish yesterday with pressure filtering through from US markets. Pressure this week has come from better-than-expected US crop conditions and steady EU export demand. However, Black Sea supplies and any updates on tensions in Ukraine and Russia remain in focus. 

Improved US conditions

In the USDA’s latest crop progress report released on Monday, 52% of the US winter wheat crop was rated as being in good or excellent condition, up from 50% a week earlier and above analyst expectations. In terms of development, 83% of the crop has now headed, with harvest well underway in Texas and other southern states.

The proportion of the US maize crop rated in good or excellent condition reached 69% in Monday’s report, up from 68% the week before, but in line with expectations.

Over the coming week, heavy rain is forecast across the US Midwest, which may benefit the later sown crops further north, but could hinder harvest progression in key growing regions such as Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. 

Sluggish EU exports

Global wheat export demand has remained steady as of late. EU commission data released yesterday showed that EU soft wheat exports this season to date had totalled 19.1 Mt by 1 June, 34% behind the same point a year earlier. 

Meanwhile in the US, wheat exports sales this season to date (as at 30 May) totalled 21.8 Mt, compared to 18.7 Mt at the same time last season.

Ukrainian supplies

Ukraine’s agricultural exports increased to 4.04 Mt in May, up from 3.73 Mt in April, driven by higher shipments of maize and wheat. Despite this rise, looking to next season, Ukraine’s agricultural minister said yesterday that the 2025 grain harvest may decline by 10% to around 51.0 Mt, compared to 56.7 million tons in 2024. This is due to poor weather and the ongoing conflict. Key estimates include 20–22 Mt of wheat and 26 Mt of maize.

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