Mid-week market update: Grain market daily

• Global wheat futures closed somewhat sideways yesterday, with Chicago and Paris wheat closing ever so slightly up, while UK feed wheat futures settled marginally lower (diverging, largely due to the strengthening of sterling).
• May-25 UK feed wheat futures closed at £156.55/t yesterday, down £0.70/t on the day. The Nov-25 contract also lost £0.70/t, over the same period to close at £180.30/t.
• Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures closed €7.75/t up yesterday, settling at €492.75/t. Rapeseed prices were supported by the wider veg oil market yesterday.

Sign up to receive the Weekly Market Report and Grain Market Daily from AHDB.

With markets digesting the latest USDA estimates released on Monday, we look at what could influence markets going forward.

Latest USDA data

As we covered in yesterday’s Grain Market Daily, the USDA released its first global projections for the 2025/26 season. The key take homes are that 2025/26 global maize ending stocks are forecast down on the year (lower than pre report expectations), and wheat ending stocks are up slightly (higher than initially expected). Fundamentally though, the latest estimates continue the trend of falling global grain stocks, which has the potential to underpin the market. However, uncertainty around global demand and geopolitical factors remain a watch point.

US crop conditions

The US winter wheat crop is very much in focus. While poor US crop conditions were adding some uplift to markets a few weeks ago, better weather has led to US crop conditions improving considerably. As at 11 May, 54% of the US winter wheat crop was rated as good/excellent. This is up from 51% the week before and 50% the same week last year. US crop conditions will continue to remain a watch point heading towards harvest and further improvements will likely have a bearish influence on markets.

Black Sea crop conditions

It’s not just the US that has been suffering from dry conditions, the Black Sea region has also been experiencing prolonged periods of dryness. While May so far has seen ‘satisfactory’ weather conditions in Ukraine, southern regions have experienced cold and dry conditions reportedly damaging crops (LSEG). Ukrainian consultancy, APK-Inform has cut its estimate for Ukrainian grain output for the 2025/26 season by around 4% from its previous forecast to 55.3Mt.

Similarly in Russia, dry conditions are expected to impact the size of its 2025 crop. While the crop is expected to be lower than in 2024, forecasters keep edging up their estimates, based on improving conditions. Approaching harvest, all eyes will be on the Black Sea to see how much actually is produced. Further challenging conditions in this region could have a negative impact on production.

Summary

The weather watch is on, with markets reacting to changes in conditions in key producing regions. However, we also have the sentiment of further tightening in global grain stocks with a pinch of uncertainty around demand and geopolitical factors. Keep an eye on the weather and subsequent crop conditions in Europe, the US and Black Sea, as any developments will likely have an impact on price direction.

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.