Midweek market update: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) rose by £0.30/t (0.2%) yesterday, closing at £178.40/t. The May-26 contract gained £0.50/t (0.3%) to finish at £191.30/t
• Global wheat markets were mixed. Chicago futures (Dec-25) fell 0.6% to a two-month low, pressured by favourable crop ratings and harvest progress in the US. By contrast, Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) rose 0.7%, supported by short-covering, a weaker euro and news of an Algerian import purchase
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) rose by €7.50/t to close at €485.00/t, supported by strength across the wider vegetable oil complex. Dec-25 Chicago soyabean oil and Nov-25 Winnipeg canola futures rising by 0.7% and 1.2% respectively

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Domestic wheat prices have shown some resilience over the past week, supported by a weaker pound against both the euro and the US dollar. However, global factors, such as ample global supply and subdued export demand, continue to cap any significant prices rises. Here’s a look at the key developments shaping grain markets so far this week.

US crop update

The US winter wheat harvest reached 63% completion by 13 July, just below the expected 64%. This is up from 53% the previous week, but still behind last year’s 70%. Spring wheat conditions were rated 54% good to excellent, better than market expectations, but well below the 77% reported at the same point last year.

Recent rainfall has helped ease concerns over drought-related yield losses for the country’s maize crops. Crop conditions held steady with 74% rated good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week and ahead of last year’s 68%.

Trade tensions

The US administration has announced a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico, effective 1 August. It has also threatened further tariffs on Russia’s trade partners if the Ukraine conflict remains unresolved. These developments could weigh on global grain demand and prices looking ahead.

EU crop outlook

France is on course for a strong 2025 harvest. Soft wheat production is forecast at 32.6 Mt, up 27% on last year’s rain-hit harvest and 2.4% above the five-year average. Barley output is also expected to rise to 11.8 Mt, a 19% year-on-year increase.

Favourable weather has accelerated harvest progress. By 7 July, 36% of France’s soft wheat had been cut, compared with just 4% at the same time last year and a five-year average of 15% at this point in the season (FranceAgriMer).

However, EU wheat exports are off to a slow start this season, with just 246 Kt shipped by 13 July, down from 1.12 Mt last year. French figures are not yet included.

Russian production outlook

Russian consultancy IKAR has trimmed its 2025 wheat production forecast to 84.0 Mt, down from a previous estimate of 84.5 Mt. The revision reflects ongoing drought in key southern regions. Export projections have also been slightly reduced in line with the lower output.

Looking ahead

As harvests continue in the Northern Hemisphere, prices remain under pressure. However, changing weather patterns could quickly influence market sentiment, particularly in terms of impact on maize crops. Geopolitical risks will also be important to monitor in the coming weeks.

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