Looking ahead at 2025 prices: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) ended yesterday’s session at £192.30/t, up £1.10/t from Friday’s close. The Nov-25 contract gained £0.35/t over the same period, to close at £195.50/t.
• Domestic wheat futures followed global grain markets yesterday. May-25 Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures were up 2.4% and 0.2% respectively. Weather concerns for US winter wheat supported Chicago futures prices and maize is a driver in the grain market. The low pace of EU wheat exports limited further gains for Paris milling wheat.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures closed at €540.00/t yesterday, up €1.75/t from Friday’s close.
• Chicago soyabean futures (May-25) gained 2.8% on yesterday’s close. Weather concerns in Argentina and Brazil supported soyabean prices. Brent crude oil futures rose for the third consecutive trading session.

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It's difficult to predict grain and oilseed prices, especially in the long term. But thanks to futures prices, we can analyse the main trends for future crops. This is beneficial, especially as many farmers are now focusing on grain and oilseed prices for the 2025 harvest. After the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) were published last Friday, grain and oilseed prices rose on the back of supportive fundamentals. But what about prices for the 2025 crop?

After the WASDE was published on Friday (10 Jan), Chicago wheat (Dec-25) and UK feed wheat (Nov-25) futures for the 2025 crop closed higher than the 2024 crop contracts (May-25) at £14/t and £4/t respectively. On the other hand, Chicago maize futures (-£9/t) and Paris milling wheat (-£3/t) futures closed with a discount into new crop. Indeed, Chicago 2025 wheat futures have been supported by winter weather risks, while the soyabean/maize price ratio may encourage more spring planting of US maize.    

For oilseeds, on 10 January new crop (Nov-25) Paris rapeseed futures closed at a quite considerable £40/t discount to old crop prices (May-25). The main reason for this large difference is the strong demand and limited supply of rapeseed on the EU market this season. Winnipeg canola futures had a difference of £11/t between new and old crop futures contracts. Thanks to the potential decreasing US planted soyabean area in 2025, soyabean futures for 2024 and 2025 crops are without much difference.

Looking ahead

A comparison of futures for crops in 2024 and 2025 could provide farmers with some additional arguments for planning the spring planting campaign. In addition, the main trend in futures prices between different crops will provide farmers with information to help them develop a strategy for selling their cereals and oilseeds.

The USDA's 101st Annual Agriculture Outlook Forum (AOF) will be held on 27–28 February 2025. Traditionally, this forum is used to present the first forecast figures for the US spring crop. This could have a huge impact on the price difference between the 2024 and 2025 crops for grains and oilseeds.  

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