Improving US weather weighs on wheat: Grain market daily

• Wheat prices fell globally yesterday with old crop contracts in the UK, Chicago, Kansas and Paris all settling at new contract lows. Expected rain in US winter wheat areas (more below) and currency movements, impacting export competitiveness, pulled prices down.
• May-25 UK feed wheat futures fell £3.90/t from Fridays close, to a new contract low of £161.00/t, while Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures lost £1.85/t yesterday to settle at £183.00/t.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures gained €22.75/t yesterday, likely influenced by technical factors as the contract finishes trading tomorrow (30 April) and closed at €542.00/t. The Nov-25 contract gained €5.50/t to settle at €479.75/t. There were also relatively small movements in Winnipeg canola, with the Canadian election results being watched, and Chicago soyabean futures.

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Forecasts for rain in key US winter wheat areas weighed on global wheat futures prices yesterday, with the USDA reporting improved crop conditions.

Dry conditions in key US winter wheat areas have been a developing watch area recently. The rain last week helped to stabilise conditions in parts of the Great Plains, though the US Drought Monitor reports that higher than usual temperatures offset some of the benefit.

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Nonetheless, the rain benefited winter wheat crops. After the market closed last night, the USDA reported that 49% of US winter wheat was in a good or excellent condition. This is up from 45% last week and also above trade expectations of 47% according to a poll by Reuters.

With over a quarter of crops now at ear emergence (27% ‘headed’ by 27 April), weather will have increasing influence on yield potential. Further rain is expected this week which could support the growing crops and that has been weighing on prices.

However, it will be important to monitor the amounts and locality of the rain, particularly with warmer than usual temperatures again forecast this week. The heaviest rain is expected for the southern Plains, with good volumes into the Midwest but volumes look more limited further north.

Strong spring planting progress adds pressure

Despite some showers in the Midwest, a key maize and soyabean growing area, there’s also been strong planting progress across the spring crops. As of 27 April, planting of spring wheat, maize and soyabeans was ahead of the average pace and similar to last year's progress.

US farmers plan to increase their maize areas by 5% in 2025 to the highest level in 12 years. This increase is a key part of why the International Grains Council is forecasting a global grain surplus, albeit small, in 2025/26.

The strong planting progress in the US increases the likelihood of the planned crops all being planted and so is also a negative factor for prices. While the expected rain could slow progress this week, it will remain an important watch area in the next couple of weeks.

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