Improved performance will drive EU milk production growth

Thursday, 19 December 2019

By Jennie Tanner

EU milk production is expected to increase 1% per year to 2030, according to the latest EU Medium Term Outlook. Production growth will be constrained by requirements to reduce greenhouse gases, phosphate emissions and nitrates. Farming practises, particularly in herd management and nutrition, will likely be adapted to focus on yields. This in turn should lead to smaller herds and therefore lower emissions.

Shifts in consumer’s preferences towards sustainable production is also expected to drive change in terms of production systems. The expectation is that this will lead to higher internal demand for organic, pasture based and locally sourced milk.

With lower growth in milk production, the EU is only expected to contribute 8% to global milk growth by 2030. The projected global increase is almost 14m tonnes per year, higher than the last decade.

The majority of this will growth is predicted to occur in developing countries, with India, Asia (other than China and Japan), and Africa increasing their self- sufficiency. As such, global import growth is expected to slow down over the next decade to less than 0.9million tonnes a year by 2030 (from 2.1 million tonnes), and be predominantly focussed on powders and cheese.

Jennie Tanner

Analyst - Dairy & Livestock

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