Global wheat falls on the back of Ukraine/Russian negotiations: Grain Market Daily

• Both domestic and global wheat markets lost ground yesterday. May-22 UK feed wheat futures settled at £309.25/t yesterday, down £6.75/t from Fridays close. New crop (Nov-22) futures also fell from Friday (-£6.05/t), closing at £262.50/t yesterday. May-22 Chicago wheat fell $16.63/t from Friday closing at $388.34/t on Monday, while the Dec-22 contract lost $7.99/t, settling at $375.48/t.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed at €972.00/t yesterday, up €2.75/t from Friday, while Chicago soyabean futures (May-22) fell $16.90/t from Friday’s close, to settle at $611.45/t on Monday.

On the back of the next round of Ukraine and Russia peace talks, due to take place later today, both domestic and global wheat markets lost ground yesterday. UK, US and Paris wheat futures all settled down compared with Fridays close. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, markets continue to be very reactive to any new news. Maize markets also took a dip yesterday with a rise in COVID-19 cases in China leading to concerns around demand and logistics.

While global markets are dominated at the moment by Russia and Ukraine, other areas are also having an impact. On Thursday, the USDA will be publishing its planting intentions report for 2022 and quarterly stocks survey, with traders already adjusting positions ahead of these releases. According to a Refinitiv survey, analysts are expecting that the US will plant less maize and more soya this year.

There is hope that today’s face to face talks between the Ukrainian and Russian heads of state may result in cease fire. However, some believe that this does not look promising. If this is the case, and the current situation in Ukraine continues, then we could likely see markets bounce back up on the back of this. That said, how far prices will go is questionable as it could be argued that the war and its implications have already been priced into markets.

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