Thursday, 19 November 2020
By Duncan Wyatt
In its latest quarterly outlook, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that global pork production could rise by 4% in 2021 to 102 million tonnes.
Production growth in China is expected to be 9%, 2020 marking the low point in output following the discovery of African Swine Fever (ASF) in the pig herd. Production would still be well below the level prior to the outbreak.
Production in the EU is expected to grow slightly because of productivity growth from stable sow herds. Production in Germany is not expected to be materially affected by ASF in its wild boar herd. However, German volumes originally intended for export to China will instead have to be consumed on what is described as a saturated EU market. It is this, along with increased production from Brazil, that is expected to contribute to weaker global prices. US production is forecast to grow by 1%.
China’s pork imports are forecast to fall by 6% to 4.5 million tonnes in 2021, although they will remain supported in the near term. Lower global pork prices are forecast, as the mechanism by which pork is channelled away from China to other price-sensitive markets.
China’s meat imports generally are expected to fall as producers rebuild sow herds and production recovers. Elsewhere, the USDA suggests global meat imports are largely recovering, as economies recover following COVID-19, and foodservice demand improves.