Global pork production back in growth from 2021 says OECD-FAO forecast

Monday, 27 July 2020

By Bethan Wilkins

The OECD and FAO have jointly published the latest report on the World Agricultural Outlook for 2020-2029. We previously commented on their outlook for beef and lamb markets here.

For pig meat, although prices are expected to remain high over the next decade, this will still be a decline in “real terms” when compared with 2019. Increasing supplies, and the extent of ongoing Chinese import demand, will be influential in shaping this trend.

Pig meat production is expected to rise by about 16% over the decade overall. Production in China is projected to return to 2017 levels in 2025/2026 and continue steady growth over the remainder of the period. The recovery from African Swine Fever in Asian countries is responsible for much of the pig meat production growth forecast. Production is also expected to rise in Brazil and the US, however a 3% decline is projected for the EU, due to a mix of environmental and public concerns.

Pig meat production:

Looking at global trade, Chinese pork imports remain above 2017 levels throughout the outlook period. However, 2020 is the peak, with demand subsequently falling back and 2029 levels are 36% down on 2019. This means global import demand also falls in the first part of the outlook period. There is some uplift again from 2027, with growth from Latin America and Africa.

As for the other meats, consumption increases over the outlook period. However, this is entirely driven by developing countries, as consumption is expected to decline in developed countries. Pig meat is expected to lose out to poultry in the EU, which is cheaper and perceived to be healthier.

Bethan Wilkins

Senior Analyst - Red Meat

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