Global milk supplies to stay low despite growth in some regions

Thursday, 20 October 2022

Global milk production is expected to drop by 0.5% in 2022 across the key producing regions according to the latest forecasts. This is in line with expectations earlier in the year, although there have been shifts in individual outlooks.

Both Australia and New Zealand are projected to perform worse than had been expected in the mid-year forecasts, as is Argentina. For these southern hemisphere countries, the reductions are due to a combination of factors, including unfavourable weather conditions, poor grass growth, labour shortages and high input costs.

According to the summer forecasts, the combined production from these three regions was expected to reach 41.3 billion litres in 2022, 0.7% lower overall than the previous year. New forecasts, updated to account for the poor start to their seasons and continued weather challenges, now suggest a combined production figure of 40.7 billion litres. This is 2.2% down from 2021 and 642 million litres less than previously expected.

Meanwhile, the latest USDA forecast for 2022 milk production has shifted from a reduction (-0.1%) to growth (+0.3%). This is linked to expansion of the dairy herd and improved yields in the second half of the year.

For the EU and UK, updated forecasts remain roughly in line with those produced earlier in the year.

Oct22 forecast global milk supplies

annual change in global milk supplies


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