GB winter crops faring well after mild autumn: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £251.10/t yesterday, down £3.40/t on Wednesday’s close. The new crop (Nov-23) contract was down £2.90/t over the same period, closing at £235.60/t yesterday.
• European wheat markets felt pressure from a strengthening euro and lower US markets yesterday, despite strong EU demand. Chicago wheat took a fall yesterday on poor wheat export sales in data to week ending 24 November. US net wheat sales for 2022/23 totalled 155.5Kt and 7Kt for 2023/24. Whereas Black Sea supplies remain globally competitive.
• Algerian state grains agency OAIC purchased between 450-500Kt of milling wheat on Wednesday, as reported by Refinitiv yesterday. Traders expect the grain to be sourced from countries including France, Germany, Bulgaria, and Russia.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €589.25/t, down €11.75/t on Wednesday’s close.
• Chicago soybean futures (May-23) fell 3% yesterday after the US Environment Protection Agency proposed smaller than expected increases to biofuel blending mandates, curbing demand.

Today, the first crop development report for the 2022/23 season has been published, showing data up to 29 November.

This autumn we have had very mild weather. Early autumn started off dry, but then getting much wetter into November. The early completion of harvest and favourable weather meant drilling began earlier than normal, and most of it was completed ahead of schedule.

Almost all winter crops have now been planted. The moisture, and mild conditions, have enabled quick crop emergence and development, with crops generally faring well for this time of year.

While crops are faring well, there are a few challenges to note. The dry weather over the summer months led to a limited window for flushes of weeds in stale seedbeds, meaning there has been less opportunity to control them. Warmer weather has also created a larger window for pests and disease (e.g., aphids and BYDV), with implications on treatment programmes, particularly for early-treated crops that may now require additional treatment.

The dry soils in late summer/early autumn also created more wear on equipment, with some growers switching to direct drilling or minimum tillage.

Volatile grain prices, combined with elevated input costs, could lead to some farmers reducing their application of nitrogen. Nitrogen management will be something to consider for how winter crops progress.

For oilseed rape, generally the crop has established well, though certain areas struggled due to the prolonged dry conditions at the end of summer. With some crop failed areas noted, down to dry conditions or cabbage stem flea beetle (CSFB). CSFB is still the main concern for OSR, with crops sown in August and early September at most risk.

The table below shows crop condition scores as at 29 November 2022.

For more information on disease and weed pressure, and information by crop type, please follow this link.

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