GB harvest still lacking pace: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-23) closed at £196.55/t yesterday, down £3.70/t from Wednesday’s close. The Nov-24 contract was down £2.00/t over the same period, ending the session at £202.00/t.
• Domestic wheat prices followed continental prices down yesterday due to the absence of any further escalations in the Black Sea region, as well as sluggish EU exports. Global markets are also awaiting direction from the USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) due out later today.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-23) gained €2.75/t yesterday, ending the session at €461.00/t. The Nov-24 contract closed at €472.75/t, up €2.50/t over the same period.
• Rapeseed prices followed US soyabeans up yesterday on the back of expectations of higher demand for US soyabean cargoes.

Today, AHDB published the second harvest progress report of 2023, covering the beginning of harvest up to 8 August (week 5). Since the first report, unsettled weather has continued to delay harvest progress across most of the UK. However, winter wheat, winter barley, spring barley, oat and winter oilseed rape harvesting is now underway.

Overall crop quality and yields are variable between the regions where reports are available. This is a result of factors such as soil type, amount of rainfall, and varietal differences.

Winter wheat

By 8 August, it is estimated that 5% of the GB winter wheat area had been harvested. This is well behind the five-year average of 36% complete by this stage in the season. Progress ranges from 0% in the North East and Scotland, to 15% harvested in the West Midlands.

Early indications are that winter wheat yields are good and around the five-year average. At this point in the season, volume of processed samples is low and so quality data is minimal. The average grain moisture is around 16.8%. There has been a variation in drying requirements, but in some regions most crops have reportedly needed drying.

Winter barley

The winter barley harvest is nearing completion. As of 8 August, 94% of the GB winter barley area was estimated to be cut; this is in line with the five-year average of 93% for this stage in the season.

Yields are on par with the five-year average, with the GB average currently estimated between 6.8−7.2 t/ha. Lower yields are seen on lighter soils, which previously suffered from water stress, across most regions.

Quality wise, specific weights have been quite variable, with the GB average currently between 62−64 kg/hl. Screenings are currently low, ranging between 2−4% on farm. Early nitrogen indications range between 1.5−1.7%, though data is limited at this point.

Spring barley

Around 5% of the GB spring barley area had been harvested up to 8 August, below the five-year average of 11%. Only the earliest sown spring barley crops have been harvested. Crops planted in March/April should be ready for harvest in the coming weeks.

Harvest is furthest ahead in the Eastern region where 20% has been cut. In the North East, North West, Scotland and Wales Harvest has not yet begun.

In terms of yield indications, the current GB average is 5.2−5.8 t/ha. Generally, specific weights and nitrogen content are reported as acceptable. However, numbers are variable as they are based on the small number of early crops already harvested.

Oats

As of 8 August, 5% of the GB oat area was harvested; this is behind the previous five-year average of 23%. All regions, except Yorkshire, have started harvesting oats. Wales are the most advanced, with 20% of its oat area now cut.

The GB average yield is currently 4.9−5.5 t/ha. There is currently limited data on quality, though initial reports suggest specific weights are generally acceptable. Majority of oats have needed drying, with GB average moisture content currently 16−18%.

Winter oilseed rape

As of 8 August, 76% of the GB crop has been harvested, down from 95% cut by this point last year and behind the five-year average pace of 80%. Harvesting of winter oilseed rape (WOSR) has now started in all regions, although it remains in the early stages in Scotland.

Generally, yields are poor, with the GB average currently at 2.7−3.0 t/ha. From 2018 to 2022 the GB yield averaged 3.3 t/ha (Defra). Lower yields have largely been a result of inclement weather, pigeon and pest damage, and smaller seed sizes due to high temperatures in early June. Oil content in GB is currently averaging 43−45%.

For the full GB harvest update, read the full report here.

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