GB crop prospects looking positive, now to weather watch: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-23) closed yesterday at £184.25/t, gaining £3.25/t on Wednesday’s close. Nov-24 futures closed at £191.85/t, gaining £2.45/t over the same period.
• Our domestic market gained with both the Chicago and Paris wheat markets. This came as the Ukraine Ministry of Renovation and Infrastructure announced that the Black Sea Initiative (grain export deal) had been halted again because Russia had blocked registration of all ships to Ukrainian ports.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-23) closed yesterday at €406.00/t, gaining €3.00/t on Wednesday’s close. Gaining with both Chicago soyabean futures and Brent crude oil. The on-going dryness which has aided the US soyabean campaign is not posing a potential threat to crop development.

Earlier today, we released our latest GB crop development report, using data as at the week ending Tuesday 30 May.

The start of May saw unsettled weather continue, with frequent and often heavy rainfall. Since mid-May, conditions have been more settled, with little rain and good levels of sunshine for many. As a result of the improved weather, most farmers have been able to catch up with late sowing and spray applications.

The latest report highlights that overall, weed and disease pressure has remained low. However, delays in fungicide and herbicide applications in April and early May resulted in increased incidence in affected crops. On occasion, crops had exceeded the growth stage cut offs due to rapid development and unfavourable conditions, meaning spray applications in some cases were missed.

To the week ending 30 May, 85% of the GB winter wheat crop was in good/excellent condition, ahead of 82% at the same point last season. Overall winter wheat crops are developing well and are ahead of where they were this time last year. Septoria is the primary concern in terms of disease pressure currently. With regards to weed pressure, there are only occasional crops that have high levels of blackgrass or have suffered standing water earlier in the season in poor condition.

Overall, GB winter barley is in relatively good condition. For the week ending 30 May, 88% of the crop was in good/excellent condition, up from 82% at the same point last year. The last few weeks have seen swift development, and crops are at a similar growth stage as they were last season. There is variable risk of lodging, though levels are not too concerning currently with robust PGR programmes. Weather going forward will be key.

For winter oilseed rape (OSR), conditions remain very varied. At week ending 30 May, 63% of winter OSR was in good/excellent condition, compared to 70% at the same point last season. Damage from cabbage stem flea beetle (CSFB), pigeons and rape stem weevil are the main causes of variability.

GB spring barley, wheat and oats drilling was completed in May. Crops are generally looking well, with varied development depending on late/early sowing, with earlier sown crops faring slightly better for many. There are no significant reports of weed, pest or disease pressures in either crop so far.

Generally, most crops are faring well with yield prospects average or above. Going forward now, weather watching will be key for many. The forecast at the moment is for dry, settled weather over the next week, before chances of some needed showers the following week.

For more information by crop type, please follow this link.

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