Full provisional Defra crop production estimates

Thursday, 10 October 2019


As highlighted on Tuesday, Defra provisional crop estimates for national wheat production came in at 16.283Mt. This is broadly in line with expectations, with a national yield no higher than recorded in 2015, of 9.0t/ha.


Defra’s provisional production estimates for winter and spring barley at 8.180Mt were higher than market expectations. Record spring barley yields are underpinning this.

At 6.5t/ha on a national UK level, this would be the highest spring barley yield on record, and 1.0t/ha above the 10 year average, leading to a 4.631Mt production estimate.

The AHDB Harvest Report findings were for a more modest year on year increase in spring barley yields, at 5.8-6.0t/ha. This would place yields between that of 2014 and 2015. The dry conditions in early summer had curbed some of the higher yield expectations, especially on lighter land.

Provisional national winter yields of 7.9t/ha are the highest on record. However, they are just 0.2t/ha more than the previous high in 2015. Again, Defra provisional yields are greater than recorded by the AHDB Harvest report (7.4-7.6t/ha).


Provisional production estimates for oats of 1.082Mt, if realised, would be the largest crop since 1972. This could create a requirement to export significantly greater tonnages than in recent years. With UK national yields of 6.0t/ha, this is in line with 2014 and 2015 and a 1Mt crop in line with expectations.

Oilseed rape

Provisional estimates have oilseed rape production at 1.750Mt. UK yields for oilseed rape at 3.3t/ha are below the 5 year average, but far from the lowest on record and in line with the AHDB Harvest Report findings of between 3.2-3.5t/ha. Yet at 529Kha the area is above the Planting and Variety Survey findings. Additionally, questions have been posed about the area that was actually harvested relative to what remained planted at the time of both surveys being conducted.

Image of staff member Peter Collier

Peter Collier

Arable Analyst

See full bio

Sign up for regular updates

You can subscribe to receive Grain Market Daily straight to your inbox. Simply fill in your contact details on our online form and select the information you wish to receive.

Visit the Keep in touch page

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.