First estimates for English crop production 2024: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) closed yesterday at £188.50/t, down £0.30/t from Tuesday’s close. The May-25 contract lost £0.40/t over the same period, ending the session at £202.55/t.
• UK feed wheat futures fell yesterday, following Paris milling wheat futures, as French companies were excluded from Algeria’s wheat tender, outlining the competitiveness of Black Sea grain. However, losses were limited, with some support following news that the Russian Agricultural Ministry called for a meeting with the country’s major grain exporters, arising speculation of export controls.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-24) ended yesterday at €490.25/t, up €5.75/t from Tuesday’s close. The May-25 contract closed at €496.75/t, up €4.00/t over the session.
• While the EU rapeseed import campaign continues to outpace last year, offering support to the market, the Euro weakened yesterday against a strengthening in the US dollar which also supported Paris rapeseed futures.

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Earlier today, Defra released provisional estimates for cereal and oilseed rape production in England for 2024.

The Scottish Government is due to release its cereal and oilseed rape production estimates next Tuesday (15 October), while Northern Ireland and Wales production figures will not be reported from Defra until the UK production estimates on 12 December 2024.

Wheat

Wheat production in England has been provisionally estimated at 10.0 Mt, 22% below last year and down 21% on the five-year average. In comparison to the 2019/20 season, the last notably wetter year, the 2024 harvest is up 15% on the 8.7 Mt harvested in 2020.

Yields are provisionally below the five-year average across all regions, while the average for England was estimated at 7.0 t/ha, below the five-year average of 8.0 t/ha. Production has fallen across all regions, with the greatest fall in the North East (-33%) and smallest change in the Eastern region (-17%). 

Barley

Overall, total barley production is estimated at 4.9 Mt, 3% above last year’s production, but 7% below the five-year average. As detailed below, production has been supported by a considerable rise in spring barley production given a smaller winter barley crop.

Winter Barley

Winter barley production is estimated to fall by 26% on the year to 2.0 Mt, and 18% below than the five-year average of 2.5 Mt.

Regionally, yields are below the five-year average with a particularly significant drop in northern areas, while the average for England is estimated at 6.2 t/ha, 0.8 t/ha less than the five-year average. Production is estimated to fall across all regions, ranging from 40% in the West Midlands and 18% in the South West.

Spring barley

Spring barley production is estimated as the third largest crop since 2000 at 2.9 Mt, up 41% from last year and 3% above the five-year average.

The yield for England is estimated at 5.6 t/ha, just below the five-year average of 5.7 t/ha. Though yields in the southern and eastern regions faired better than average. As a result, for the south of England, production is better than the five-year average.

Oats

Production of oats in England is estimated at 773 Kt, up 20% from last year but 2% less than the five-year average. This would rank as the fifth largest oat crop since 2000, whereby the four larger oat crops have all occurred in the last five harvests.

Regionally, yields were mixed across England in comparison to the five-year average, with the most notable drop in the East Midlands. Production has varied by region on the year, ranging from a rise of 54% in the North West and Merseyside and a 4% fall in the North East.

Oilseed rape

Oilseed rape (OSR) production is down considerably this year at 687 Kt, 33% less than last year and down 38% on the five-year average. This also would be the lowest production since at least 2000, with production impacted by both lower yields and planted area. In August, England’s OSR area was estimated at 250 Kha, the lowest area since 1983.

Only the Eastern region reported a yield above 3.0 t/ha, at 3.1 t/ha. All regions reported a drop in yield in comparison to their respective five-year average. As a result of poor yields and smaller area, production has fallen across all regions.

UK outlook

Following the release of the Scottish data on Tuesday, we will be able to compile the Scottish and England figures, with an estimate for NI and Wales, to give a first indication of total UK production for 2024. Look out for more analysis on this in Tuesday's Grain market daily.

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