Firm wheat and barley imports to date: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-24) closed at £166.95/t yesterday, up £2.45/t from Friday’s close. The Nov-24 contract ended the session at £187.75/t, also gaining £2.45/t over the same period.
• Domestic wheat futures followed global wheat markets up on the back of conflict escalations in the Black Sea region, and news that the EU would impose tariffs on Russian grain imports. Russian attacks over the weekend damaged agricultural enterprises and destroyed several industrial buildings in the port of Odesa (LSEG).
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-24) closed yesterday at €443.25/t, up €7.00/t from Friday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-24) were up €4.75/t over the same period, ending the session at €448.00/t.
• Concerns over the size of the EU’s 2024 rapeseed crop are rising. Last week, Germany’s association of farm cooperatives said the size of the country’s winter rapeseed crop would fall by 7% to 3.93 Mt (LSEG).

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The latest UK trade data includes information on the export and import of grain up until the end of January. Perhaps unsurprisingly, due to the poor quality of this season’s domestic cereals, imports this season (2023/24) to date remain firm. The majority of imports are thought to be made up of higher quality grains for milling and malting. On the other hand, largely due to our relative price, UK exports of wheat and barley are minimal.

Wheat

So far this season (Jul-Jan), UK wheat exports (incl. durum wheat) have totalled 165.7 Kt, down 78% on the year, and down 64% on the previous five-year average. As well as not pricing competitively on the global market and reduced demand for European wheat, a tighter year on year wheat balance also contributes to the downturn in exports. According to our January UK supply and demand estimates, reduced availability this season, combined with a slight uptick in domestic consumption, leaves the wheat balance at 2.83 Mt, 31% tighter on the year. 

From July to January, wheat imports (incl. durum wheat) have totalled 1.25 Mt, up 55% on the year, and up 13% on the previous five-year average. As mentioned previously, this uptick in imports is due to the low availability of high-quality milling wheat domestically.

In January full season wheat imports were expected to reach 1.73 Mt, up 28% from last season reflecting market conditions at the time. Concerns are growing over the size of next season’s crop too, which could lead to an even firmer import pace towards the end of this season than initially thought.

AHDB releases its next estimates of UK supply and demand on 28 March.

Barley

Barley exports this season to date (Jul-Jan) have totalled 494.7 Kt, down 27% on the year, and down 39% on the five-year average. Much like wheat, a slightly tighter domestic balance, as well as changes in global demand for feed barley is the cause for more sluggish exports. In our latest estimates, the barley balance was forecast at 2.13 Mt, 7% tighter on the year. 

So far this season, barley imports have totalled 99.0 Kt, more than double imports at the same point last season and the five-year average. Again, the tighter availability of high-quality domestic malting barley, combined with stable demand from the brewing malting and distilling industries has led to the firm pace this season.

Oats

Oat exports this season continue to flow, totalling 84.3 Kt from July to January. This is down 28% on the year, but up 46% on the previous five-year average. The current full season estimate sits at 100 Kt, which reflected market conditions when the forecast was made in January. Currently this pace of exports, combined with the smaller crop this season, leads to expectations of the tightest ending stocks since 2012/13.

Maize

Maize imports this season to date have reached 1.55 Mt, up 11% on the year, and up 3% on the five-year average. Full season imports are currently estimated at 2.31 Mt, on the back of its expected relative price to domestic grains.

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