Fat and protein projections for 2021/22

Tuesday, 6 April 2021

By Kat Jack and Chris Gooderham

Butterfat and protein content in the new season are both expected to be similar to 2020/21, based on our latest projections. Our fat and protein content forecast accounts for long term improvement trends, in part from improving genetics, as well as average composition from recent years.

Butterfat percentages were high in 2020/21, with the season currently on track to have the highest average butterfat on record*. Our forecast predicts next season to run at a similar level, with the tail end of the season being slightly behind the exceptional percentages we’ve seen this Jan and Feb.


Protein content took a step back in the 2020/21 season, running generally behind 2019/20 protein data, particularly at the start of the season. At our latest Milk Forecasting Forum, the 2019/20 protein levels were seen as an anomaly, far higher than normally expected. We have therefore ignored 2019/20 when calculating the forecast.

For 2021/22 we’re expecting protein to run at a very similar level to 2020/21. The current high feed prices and how they develop through the season will likely have some influence on protein content this season.


*2020/21 data available up to February; Records go back to 1994/95

Image of staff member Katherine Jack

Katherine Jack

Senior Analyst - Dairy

See full bio

Image of staff member Chris Gooderham

Chris Gooderham

Head of Market Specialists - Dairy & Livestock

See full bio

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