EU production steady in 2020 despite problems

EU pig meat production (excluding the UK) was 2.05 million tonnes in November. This was a rise of 5% on year earlier levels according to data from the European Commission. 21.7 million pigs were slaughtered in the bloc, an increase of 4%, demonstrating a rise in carcase weights across the region.

This brings production in the year to November to 21 million tonnes, 0.7% higher than at the same point in 2019. This small increase comes against a background of disruption and uncertainty that no country has escaped.

Continuing the long-term trend, Spanish production dominated the picture, underpinned by a strong export trade. In November alone, slaughter in Spain increased by 15% year on year.

This is in stark contrast to Germany; beset by problems with African Swine Fever (ASF) in its wild boar herd and COVID-19 related processing capacity constraints, slaughter fell by 6% (310,000 head) year on year in November. Production in Germany fell by nearly 3% (128,000 tonnes) in the year to November overall. Italy has experienced even more severe declines, with production in the year to November falling by nearly 14% (180,000 tonnes).

As a whole, the European market is amply supplied with pig meat, not least because Germany is temporarily unable to export to China, due to ASF. Prices have fallen dramatically as the market rebalances to find a home for approximately 45,000 tonnes a month of these German volumes.

Looking ahead, the European Commission has recently published its medium-term outlook for agricultural markets. In the short-term, demand for EU pig meat is expected to decline. This is a result of anticipated recovery in China’s production levels, which will likely reduce import demand from Europe over the next year. EU pig meat production is expected to fall from a forecast 22.9 million tonnes in 2020, to 22.7 million tonnes in 2021. EU exports are expected to fall from a forecast 4.3 million tonnes in 2020, to 3.9 million tonnes in 2021.

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