Early Bird Survey re-run results: Grain market daily

Market commentary

• UK feed wheat futures (May-24) closed yesterday at £164.00/t, down £1.40/t on Wednesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-24) closed at £184.10/t, down £1.60/t
• The domestic market followed the Paris and Chicago wheat markets down yesterday. Chicago wheat’s pressure has been from Chinese importers’ cancellations and postponement of around c.1 Mt of imports of Australian wheat. Furthermore, there were weak US export sales reported. The Paris market was pressured by continued Russian supplies coming to the global market
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-24) closed yesterday at €437.50/t, down €2.75/t on Wednesday’s close. Old crop rapeseed futures followed pressured old crop Chicago soyabean futures, which were down due to technical trading and seasonally slowing US exports sales

Early Bird Survey re-run results

It never rains, it pours…literally. This planting cycle in the UK has been very challenging for domestic arable farmers, with growers waiting for breaks in the weather to work fields.

From the first Early Bird Survey, which was out last November, it was evident that there was going to be less winter cropping for harvest 2024. However, the continued adverse weather has just exacerbated this issue. A re-run of the survey shows this clearly.

As we can see from the table above, we have seen a downward revision to winter crop areas in comparison to the results initially released in November 2023, with an uptick in spring intentions.

There is a clear intention to plant more spring crops, though the intended areas are lower than in 2020. Grain and oilseed prices have fallen more than input costs for the 2024 crop, which is likely deterring farmers from maximising their spring crop areas. Plus, as the weather is still wet, there is now real concern about if all the planned spring crops will be planted. For spring wheat, in particular, time is running out.

For full results, follow the link here. As we progress throughout this growing season, there will be the release of crop conditions and development; these reports can be found on AHDB’s website. The next crop condition and development report will show the crop situation as of late March 2024.

AHDB runs a Planting and Variety Survey each year, which gives the first insight into the cropped areas after planting concludes. Please look out for the survey landing on your doorsteps and inboxes from late April to help everyone understand the final UK cropping picture ahead of harvest 2024. The results of the Planting and Variety Survey are usually released in July.

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