Early Bird Survey confirms winter cropping rise for harvest 23: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) fell £0.50/t over yesterday’s session, closing at £239.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-23) ended the session at £228.00/t, also down £0.50/t from Friday’s close.
• Global grain prices slid slightly as some much-needed rain hit Argentina’s drought stricken agricultural areas over the weekend. Though ongoing issues with maize plantings from dry weather in the country remains a concern.
• The welcomed rain in Argentina also pressured soyabean prices. Chicago soyabean futures (May-23) closed at £539.07/t yesterday, down £7.25/t over the session.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed at £563.00/t yesterday, a €3.75/t fall over the session.

Last week, Defra released their final estimates for the 2022 UK arable crop areas. This allows us to look at our Early Bird Survey of planting intention results for harvest 2023, on a national level for total cropping, and at a regional level for the four main crops: wheat, barley, oats, and oilseed rape (OSR).

On a national level, wheat, winter barley and oilseed rape areas are all set to increase again this harvest. This is perhaps unsurprising results given the relatively favourable conditions at planting.

Wheat

The total wheat area is forecast to be relatively unchanged, up just 1% year-on-year at 1,821Kha, but there are some larger differences in the regional changes.

The East remains the largest wheat growing region in the UK, though is expected to see the largest actual change in area, down 14Kha from last year. The South East is the only other region expecting a decline in wheat area for harvest 2023, down 1% on the year.

On the other hand, the greatest percentage change is seen in Wales and Northern Ireland, with wheat area expected to be up 21% on the year at 41Kha.

The North East region is expected to see a 4% rise in wheat plantings, and Yorkshire and The Humber are expected to see a 1% rise in wheat plantings. This is supported by delivered premiums seen in this region, with increased demand from the human and industrial sector. The North West is also expected to see a further 1% rise year-on-year, supported by higher prices.

Both the West and East Midlands are expected to see little change in the 2023 wheat area.

Scotland is expected to see a rise in wheat plantings by 8%, to 116Kha

Other key headlines:

• Total barley area is forecast down 2% year-on-year, at 1,082Kha.
• However, at 450Kha, the forecasted total winter barley area is well above the previous five-year-average (398Kha), and up 4% on the year.
• The driver behind the overall barley area decrease is spring barley, expected to be down 6% (40Kha) at 632Kha.
• The UK oat area for harvest 2023 is estimated at 166Kha. This is down 4% (7Kha) from harvest 2022.
• Another yearly climb in rapeseed area is expected. At 416Kha nationally, area is anticipated to be up 52Kha from last harvest. That said, it is still a long way off historic levels.

For the full regional breakdown of cropping intentions for all four key crops (wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape) visit the Early Bird Survey webpage.

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