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DEFRA’s June survey aligns with the AHDB Planting and Variety Survey: Grain Market Daily

Friday, 27 September 2019

Market Commentary

  • Paris milling wheat futures gained €2.25/t, to close yesterday at €173.00/t and continued to rise further this morning. The weakening of the euro is the main driver, closing yesterday at its lowest value against the US dollar since May 2017.
  • UK feed wheat futures followed suit, gaining £0.65/t to £136.40/t, continuing to rise this morning.
  • Sterling has tumbled from Thursday to Thursday. The dollar has strengthened in that time, causing the pound to drop 1.61% over the week to £1=$1.232 at yesterdays close. Brexit uncertainty has also weakened the pound against the euro, closing yesterday at £1=€1.128.

Alice Bailey

Senior Analyst

DEFRA’s June survey matches the AHDB Planting and Variety Survey

DEFRA released the final June Survey figures yesterday covering English agricultural plantings for 2019. These figures correlate to AHDB’s Planting and Variety survey areas, released in early July.

Planted English oilseed rape area for 2019 harvest remains the lowest area since 2006 based on either survey. This is primarily caused by re-plantings that took place for the OSR crop due to crop failure. Failure occurred from poor establishment in autumn due to dryness and cabbage stem flea beetle damage or pigeon damage.

The English wheat, barley and oats area have increased year-on-year. This could be partly lead by the replanting’s of oilseed rape into some cereal crops.

Production estimates

Little change to overall average yields for GB crops is seen in the final ADAS 2019 harvest report, released today.

Harvest has ended for most of Great Britain, with relatively settled weather in England and Wales over the past few weeks allowing good progress in northern regions. However, the more unsettled weather experienced in Scotland has resulted in a small amount left uncut, as of 24 September.

Based on the average yield results of the final harvest report, we can make some estimates regarding UK production for 2019.

  • Wheat at 16.19Mt - the largest wheat crop since 2015
  • Barley at 7.53Mt - the largest crop on record
  • Oats at 1.04Mt - the largest crop on record
  • Oilseed rape at 1.77Mt - the smallest crop since 2004

The large wheat and barley crops will undoubtedly push us into a net-export trade position for both. The prospect of a no-deal Brexit is concerning when we face a large exportable surplus. We have done a number of analysis pieces regarding the effects of a no-deal Brexit, which can be found on our Analyst Insight page.

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