Crop conditions report shows domestic crops are doing well: Grain market daily

Wednesday, 7 April 2021

Market Commentary

  • UK feed wheat futures lost more ground yesterday, despite a large weakening of sterling. Sterling fell by more than 1% against the euro and 0.5% against the US dollar. May-21 futures fell £1.35/t, closing at £189.00/t, the lowest close since early December 2020. The Nov-21 contract closed at £162.90/t, down £0.35/t from Thursday’s close.
  • Brazil’s second maize crop yields will fall by an estimated 3.6% this season, according to Agroconsult. This is due to a delayed soyabean harvest, meaning much of the maize area was planted outside the ideal window. Despite this, production is forecast to increase by 3.5%, due to a 7.3% rise in planted area.
  • Russian origin wheat was the lowest offered in the latest Egyptian wheat tender for delivery 01-10 August. Egypt’s state grain buyer (GASC) purchased 290Kt of Russian origin wheat and 55Kt of Ukrainian wheat.

Crop conditions report shows domestic crops are doing well

Today, we released the latest 2021/22 UK crop development report. This shows the condition rating of crops as at the end of March.  

Although there was some challenging weather during the 2020 autumn drilling campaign, it was nowhere near the disaster we saw in 2019. Over 90% of winter cereals were in the ground by the end of November. Weather conditions throughout the growing season so far have not been overly harsh. Therefore, crops have come out of winter in considerably better condition than the previous season.

By the end of March, it is estimated that 70% of the intended spring wheat area had been drilled, with 40% of the intended spring barley area also sown.  All spring crops that have emerged are judged to be in “good” or “excellent” condition.

Winter wheat

As at end-March,  63% of the crop was considered to be in “good” or “excellent” condition, with just 7% “poor” or “very poor”. This is notably better than in March 2020 when 49% was rated as “good” or “excellent”, 18% “poor” or “very poor” and 6% had not yet emerged.

Winter barley

For winter barley, 60% of the crop was rated in “good” or “excellent” condition, just 10% was rated “poor” or “very poor”. This time last year, 45% was rated “good” or “excellent” and 18% “poor” or “very poor”.

Winter oilseed rape

The report estimates that 41% of the winter oilseed rape crop was in “good” or “excellent” condition at the end of March. A further 16% of the crop was rated as “poor” or “very poor”. This is well ahead of March 2020 when 37% was rated “poor” or “very poor” and just 26% was “good” or “excellent”.

Spring crops

Just 12% of the intended spring wheat area had emerged by the end of March but was considered to be in “good” condition. 94% of spring barley remained undrilled or un-emerged, yet of the 6% that had emerged, all was rated in “good” or “excellent” condition.

Oats (winter and spring)

For oats, 5% of the crop was in “poor” or “very poor” condition, 46% in “good” or “excellent” condition and 15% rated fair, as at end March. 34% of the intended oat area was still either undrilled or yet to emerge.

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