Australian production estimates pressure markets: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-26) moved down £0.45/t, closing at £171.25/t with contract lows set across multiple contracts. New crop futures (Nov-26) closed at £175.55/t, down £1.05/t from Friday’s close.
• There wasn’t any significant movement in wheat markets yesterday, with Paris wheat futures ending mixed and Chicago wheat futures marginally pressured from ample global supplies.
• Focus yesterday was on the upward revisions to Australia’s production. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released its crop report for December. Australia’s winter crop production is expected to increase by 10% to 66.3 Mt in 2025/26, the second largest winter crop on record. Wheat output is forecast at 35.6 Mt against 33.8 Mt in September estimates (USDA 36 Mt). Barley has been revised to 15.7 Mt up 1.1 Mt from September (USDA 15.0 Mt)
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-26) closed at €474.75/t, down €4.00/t from Friday’s close. Spillover pressure from Chicago soyabeans as the market awaits stronger buying presence from China.
• Further to that, pressure came from the increased estimates of Australian canola. ABARES forecast canola production at 7.2 Mt, up 1.2 Mt from September estimates (6.7 Mt USDA).

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