Arable Market Update for Scotland

Harvest is now all but complete, with occasional crops left unharvested across Scotland. Recent rains hindered the wrapping up of harvest, though overall this season’s harvest pace has been speedy. GB 2022 harvest progress was earlier than in any of the previous five years.

Grain yields are reportedly good this season. Though yields have varied on soil type (heavier, moisture retaining soils yielding better). Initial results for the GB AHDB cereal quality survey show nationally wheat moisture content to be drier this season, specific weights and Hagberg Falling Numbers good, though protein content lower. For barley results specific to Scotland, moisture again shows to be lower year-on-year (at 14.3% d.m), with drier conditions seen especially across the East of Scotland. Specific weights are estimated up year-on-year (to 65.8Kg/hl), and nitrogen content slightly lower (at 1.41% d.m) but overall positive news on grain production. These are initial results, for insight. The oat harvest was relatively unhindered this season. Grains are reportedly bright and clean, with yields similar to 2021.

Domestic supply is now mostly in the shed for another year. Though looking ahead for next season, fertiliser prices continue to stay elevated from supported natural gas prices. Grain prices also remain supported by a tight supply outlook for global grains, though margins look to be squeezed going forward.

Looking to demand, this is something to watch. Rising inflation and recessionary concerns in the UK will be critical to domestic demand sectors, from animal feed to brewers, maltsters, and distillers (BMD). Though new distilling capacity is coming online in Scotland boosting this picture, and recessionary habits may change drinking behaviour as opposed to reduce overall consumption. Exports too are something to think about, with a falling pound sterling, UK exports look more competitive on the global market.