Arable Market Report – 8 June 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

UK feed wheat futures continue to follow the pressure on the global grain markets.

The Nov-26 contract lost £6.25/t or 3.4%, to end Friday’s trading at £180.50/t (green line with markers, Figure 1). This is below both the 20-day (dashed black line, Figure 1) and 50-day rolling average (solid back line, Figure 1).

Grain markets were mainly driven lower last week by good US crop conditions, steady planting progress of spring crops, and harvest pressure as Northern Hemisphere harvests commence. Despite some lingering support from the recent drought in the US and concerns about tighter global wheat availability, this wasn’t enough to offset the bearish sentiment.

US harvest pressure is feeding into global pricing as Oklahoma and Texas wheat harvest is well underway. Last week USDA estimated that 67% of US maize was in good or excellent condition, the first estimate for the 2026 campaign, this is marginally down in comparison to the same point last year of 69%. The condition of this crop is going to be a huge sentiment driver over the next couple of months. There are widespread rains forecast over the US Midwest over the next week, which will support germination and crop development and could possibly continue to weigh on global markets.

In other news, last week agricultural consultancy IKAR raised Russia’s wheat estimate to 91.5Mt, increasing by 1.5Mt on previous estimates. However, French wheat crop conditions (by 01 June) were revised down, with 76% of the crop in good or excellent condition from 78% the week prior This was after the record-breaking heatwave over the last couple of weeks.

In South America, Argentina’s wheat crop is being sown at record pace, with 32.4% of the total area sown just weeks into the 2026 wheat campaign, 12.4% ahead of the five-year average.

Over the coming weeks, focus is going to be on Northern Hemisphere harvest progression which could continue to weigh on grains. In July, focus on the US maize crop will be a sentiment driver for price direction in the longer-term, currently prospects are looking positive for large US spring crops.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Delivered cereals were down across the week, following the UK futures market Thursday to Thursday. Delivered feed wheat (into East Anglia, Jun-26) was quoted at £191.00/t, down £3.50/t across the week. New crop (into East Anglia, Nov-26) was quoted at £181.50/t with no comparison.

For bread wheat (into Northants, Hvst-26) was quoted at £205.00/t, while into the Northwest it was quoted at £216.00/t for harvest.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract decreased by 1.0% in £/t from Friday 29 May to Friday 05 June, closing at £454.42/t.

Last week, prices were trading above the nearest resistance level of £460/t but subsequently fell below this level. Futures closed modestly below the nearest support level of the 20-day rolling average.

The 50-day rolling average, which is near the level of £445/t, could be the next support level.  

The relative strength index (RSI) increased from 54 to 56 Friday to Friday and is indicating a lack of market momentum.

The stronger US dollar, favourable weather conditions for soyabeans in the US and the repositioning of money management funds put pressure on Chicago futures last week. Chicago soyabean futures for Nov-26 delivery fell by 4.4%, while soyabean oil futures for Dec-26 delivery fell by 2.3%.

US soyabean planting is in its final stage and ahead of the five-year average. USDA’s initial estimates suggest that 66% of the planted crop is in good or excellent condition, compared to 67% last year.

US net export sales of soyabeans for 2025/26 totalled 276.9 Kt for the week ending 28 May, which was lower than the previous week but in line with average trade estimates. Sales for the new 2026 crop totalled 243.0 kt, which was significantly higher than the previous week.  

Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract decreased by 0.7% over the week. The price decrease was partly limited by the weaker euro against the US dollar. Winnipeg canola futures (Nov-26) were under pressure too, decreasing by 1.1%. Market participants are still focusing on the delayed planting of canola in Canada and weather risks. 

According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), the area planted with canola is expected to fall by 6% to 3.5 Mha.The harvest is predicted to be 20% smaller at 6.2 Mt, the lowest level since the 2023/24 season.  

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is forecasting 13.3 Mt of sunflower seeds and 3.4 Mt of rapeseed to be produced in Ukraine in 2026. This compared to the May USDA figures of 13.5 Mt and 4.2 Mt, respectively. Production of sunflower seeds in Ukraine is expected to increase by over 2Mt between 2025 and 2026. 

The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is due on Thursday (11 June) and could affect the market. Attention will focus on the soyabean balance figures for the US, Argentina and Brazil for the 2026/27 season. It will be interesting to see the forecast for rapeseed production in the EU, Canada, Australia and Ukraine in 2026, especially given the previously experienced weather risks.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £453.00/t in Friday’s survey, down £9.00/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery also decreased by £9.00/t, to £462.50/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £468.50/t, down £8.00 on the week.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading. Prices of Paris rapeseed futures were under pressure last Thursday and Friday.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

On Thursday 4 June, we published UK cereal usage data for April, covering human and industrial consumption, as well as GB animal feed production.

Compared to the previous season, the volume of home-grown wheat milled from July to April (including for bioethanol production) decreased by 1.0%. For imported wheat, the volume milled decreased by 33.5% over the same period.

Brewers, maltsters and distillers’ barley usage for the season to date (July–April) was down 19.1% compared to the same period in 2024/25.

We will publish the results of our annual Planting & Variety Survey (PVS) tomorrow. The PVS is the only annual pre-harvest cropped area survey that gives an early estimate of what might be available from the upcoming cereals and oilseed rape harvest in the UK. 

This Friday (12 June), HMRC releases the UK trade data for April.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

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