Arable Market Report – 7 September 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures reached a high of £219.25/t on Wednesday. But the prices fell on Thursday and Friday, following the global trend.

The contract ended the week at £212.50/t, down £3.25/t from the previous Friday.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained in the overbought zone at 70, though down from 80 a week earlier.

The RSI reflects the recent strong momentum in the market. But it also points to there being more uncertainty over the future price direction.

Global wheat prices dipped last week after the Russian President suggested that a peace deal with Ukraine may still be possible. Russia had previously ruled out the possibility.

Dec-26 Paris wheat futures lost 1.9% Friday-Friday, while Dec-26 Chicago wheat futures fell by 6.4%

Selling by speculative traders, who had previously bought into Chicago futures markets, reportedly contributed to the steeper price falls in the US.

The Chicago futures markets are closed due to a national holiday in the US today.

The market will be closely watching to see if negotiations between Russia and Ukraine take place. And, more importantly, if an increase in export levels through the Black Sea will follow.

Lativa and Lithiania may restrict or ban Russian exports from their ports on the Black Sea, with government meetings scheduled this week.

Meanwhile, harvesting is underway in Saskatchewan, Canada’s top cereal growing province. Saskatchewan reported that by 31 August, 32% barley, plus 12% of oats and 6% of spring wheat had been cut.

However, Dec-26 Chicago maize futures were almost unchanged Friday-Friday, up 0.05%. Positive US export sales data and worries about US maize yields as harvest gets underway supported prices.

US export sales of maize in 2026/27 in the week ending 27 August were above trade-expectations at 1.99 Mt.

Maize harvesting has begun in France, where crops are in very poor condition after this summer’s drought and heatwaves. FranceAgriMer reported crops are six days ahead of last year’s early development, with 3% of French maize cut by 31 August.

Alongside the conflict in the Black Sea, any early maize yields reports are likely to influence prices this week.

Also on Friday, the USDA will update its world supply and demand forecasts, and US maize yields are likely to be in focus.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

The delivered price for bread wheat in the North West this month (September) was £239.00/t, unchanged week-on-week.

The price for November delivery in the North West was up slightly week-on-week, £0.50/t, to £241.50/t.

However, this price was £26.00/t above the Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures price on the same day (Thursday 3 September).

A week earlier the bread wheat price for Nov-26 delivery in the North West was £28.50/t above the equivalent futures price.

Meanwhile, feed wheat to be delivered into the Avonmouth in November was reported at £225.50/t, with no week-on-week comparison available.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available.

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

Nov-26 Paris rapeseed futures gained 1.3% in £/t last week to just over £474/t. The price rose to nearly £477/t on Tuesday but edged back slightly in the latter part of the week.

The prices remained below the recent resistance line, but above the 20-day rolling average.

Resistance lines are levels prices can find it harder to move above, so this suggests some consolidation around current price levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) declined from 65 on 28 August to 59 on Friday.

Oilseed futures prices generally rose last week after renewed strikes in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher.

There was also support for prices from ongoing concerns about the impact of hot weather on US soyabean crops, and stronger US export sales.

Private exporters sold 530 Kt of US soyabeans to China last week to be shipped in the 2026/27 season. A further 410 Kt was sold to unknown destinations.

The Chinese President is due to visit Washington this week, and the market expects trade to be one of the topics discussed.

However, re-positioning by traders steadied the market at the end of the week. Chicago futures markets are closed today due to the Labor Day holiday in the US.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures reached $96.28/barrel on Friday. This is its highest level since 24 July and a gain of 9.3% week-on-week. Crude oil prices rose as the US and Iran conflict escalated following attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Nov-26 Chicago soyabean futures gained 1.7%, while Nov-26 Paris rapeseed futures gained 1.1% Friday-Friday.

Meanwhile, the ongoing canola harvest in Canada and a stronger Canadian dollar kept Winnipeg canola futures mostly stable. Nov-26 Winnipeg canola futures ended the week down 0.2%.

In Canada’s top canola producing province, Saskatchewan, the canola harvest was reported at 5% complete on 2 September.

Germany provisionally estimates its 2026 winter rapeseed crop at 3.52 Mt, 11% lower than last year and the smallest since 2021. The drought this summer resulted in the lowest yields since 2018, more than offsetting a 3% larger area.

Alongside the situation in the Middle East and the Chinese visit to the US, the USDA’s next estimates of world supply and demand on Friday are likely to influence markets.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Delivered rapeseed prices rose week-on-week, echoing the trend in the Paris futures prices.

The price for rapeseed delivered into Erith in September in Friday’s survey was £478.50/t with November at £482.50/t. Both prices were £6.00/t higher than in the previous week’s survey.

Prices for harvest 2027 were also reported for the first time in our survey on Friday. Rapeseed delivered into Erith at harvest 2027 was £452.50/t.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

Nearby UK natural gas prices reached their highest level since early 2023 last Wednesday. The nearby price eased slightly at the end of the week but still rose 8.5% Friday-Friday.

Natural gas is a key input in nitrogen fertiliser production, so higher prices could pose a risk to the cost of producing nitrogen fertilisers.

The latest AHDB weekly GB fertiliser prices are up to 28 August with prices for the week ending 4 September due later this week.

AHDB published data on cereals used by the UK human and industrial sectors in July, the first month of the 2026/27 marketing season, last week.

Brewers, Maltsters and Distillers (BMD) used 112.8 Kt of barley in July. This is 19% less than in July 2025 and the lowest monthly volume since January.

UK flour millers, including for starch and bioethanol production, milled 14% less wheat in July 2026 than July 2025. However, this fall looks to be driven by a year-on-year decline in bioethanol production as in July 2025 the Vivergo bioethanol plant was still in operation.

Production of bread-making flour in July was similar to the same month last year (down 0.1%). But production of ‘other flour’, often used as a proxy for the starch and bioethanol sectors, was down 36% from July 2025.

AHDB also published updated data on GB animal feed production.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

n/a = not available

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.