Arable Market Report – 6 July 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-26) followed the global market support across the week. However, gains were limited for the domestic market as sterling strengthened against both the euro and US dollar across the week, to close Friday at £1 = €1.1670 & $1.3351, respectively. 

The Nov-26 contract gained 0.25/t or 0.1%, to end Friday’s trading at £177.75/t (green line with markers, Figure 1). This is below both the 20-day (dashed black line, Figure 1) and 50-day rolling average (solid black line, Figure 1).

Global grain markets were mixed but broadly supported over the week. Sentiment was driven by the USDA data and persistent hot, dry weather in Europe, but gains were capped by the weight of large global supplies, ongoing northern hemisphere harvest pressure, and generally benign US weather.

Last Tuesday the USDA published the June Acreage and Quarterly Stocks report. The reports were slightly bullish for wheat and mostly neutral-to-bearish for maize versus expectations. The US all-wheat planted area came in at 17.3 Mha, about 0.4 Mha below trade expectations and a record low since records began in 1919. Meanwhile, 1 June US wheat stocks, at 25.0 Mt, were a touch under expectations. Both of these gave wheat a supportive tone. For maize, the planted area was 38.6 Mha, a little above expectations, and 1 June stocks, at 134.5 Mt, were still very heavy, so the report did not materially tighten the US maize balance sheet.

Furthermore, Statistics Canada also estimated wheat plantings at 10.2 Mha, down 5.9% year-on-year and below the range of market expectations. Despite this reduction in area the weather on the Canadian prairies so far hasn’t caused too much concern for crop development, unlike in Europe.

Last Friday it was reported that French maize crop ratings (to 29 Jun) fell to their lowest level in 13 years after the recent heatwave in Europe. The good or excellent score dropped from 76% to 58% as hot, dry weather threatens further damage during pollination. There were also cuts to wheat and barley conditions, though the winter barley harvest is advancing quickly with 83% of the crop harvested, up on the five-year average of 39% (FranceAgriMer).

Key watchpoints over the coming weeks are:

• crude oil, which has been volatile
• harvest progress in Europe and the Black Sea, where winter crops still look set to perform despite recent drought
• and the US weather market, with maize entering silking and becoming highly sensitive to any hot or dry spell. Such as spell could quickly ripple through global markets.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

There was greater pressure on old-crop (Jul-26) futures Thursday to Thursday which fed into delivered pricing. In general though, delivered prices followed the weekly movement of the UK futures market.

Old crop delivered feed wheat (into East Anglia, Jul-26) was quoted at £185.00/t, down £5.00/t week-on-week. New crop (into East Anglia, Nov-26) was quoted at £178.50/t, down £3.00/t week-on-week.

Bread wheat (into North West, Nov-26) was quoted at £220.00/t, down £0.50/t across the week. While in Northants, bread wheat (Nov-26) was quoted at £208/t, down £1.50/t week-on-week.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract fell by 1.5% (£/t) from Friday 26 June to Friday 3 July, closing at £440.60/t. The strengthening of sterling against the euro put pressure on the calculation of the price in £/t.

Technically, the futures price has recently created a downward trend. The next support level is £430/t, calculated from the Paris futures level of €500/t. 

The relative strength index (RSI) decreased modestly from 38 to 37 Friday to Friday, moving closer to the oversold zone (30).

The oilseeds market has been trying to determine the direction of future price movements as the futures market consolidates near strong technical levels. However, the market decreased last week due to pressure from the downward trend in crude oil prices and the high level of supply. This fall was limited by crop risk related from the recent warmer weather in North America and the drought in Europe.   

Chicago soyabean (Nov-26) and soyabean oil (Dec-26) futures decreased by 0.7% and 2.5%, respectively. Soyabean oil prices were supported at the start of June, but have been on a downward trend since then, which has fed into oilseed prices.

Last week, the release of the USDA Grains Stocks and Acreage reports on Tuesday influenced Chicago soyabean futures. The estimated number of acres of US soyabeans planted in 2026 was higher than the 31 March forecast and close to the average trade estimate. As of 1 June, US soyabean stocks were also higher than average trade estimates.

According to the USDA, the net export sales of soyabeans for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons totalled 41.8 Kt and 182.5 Kt, respectively, for the week ending 25 June. This was much lower than the previous week and trade estimates.

The price of Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola futures (Nov-26) decreased by 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively, over the last week. The weaker euro against the US dollar limited the decrease in futures prices last week. The fact that the prices of rapeseed oil remain competitive with those of other vegetable oils continues to support the market.

According to Statistics Canada, the area of planted with canola in Canada has increased from 8.75 Mha in 2025 to 9.49 Mha in 2026. As a result, we could see a record canola 2026 production, if the crop develops well. In general, this is a factor that puts pressure on rapeseed prices. However, weather risk is still an issue and forecasts need to be monitored.   

The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is due on Friday (10 July). The updated forecast for soyabean balances in the US and South America will be a key watchpoint. Further to that, the balances forecast for rapeseed in Canada and European countries for the 2026/27 season is also of interest.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £438.00/t in Friday’s survey, down £8.50/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery decreased by £9.00/t, to £449.00/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £452.50/t, down £10.00/t on the week.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid-to-late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

On Thursday 2 July, AHDB published UK cereal usage data for May, covering human and industrial consumption, as well as GB animal feed production.

Compared to the previous season, the volume of home-grown wheat milled from July-25 to May-26 (including for bioethanol production) increased by 0.7%, while the volume of imported wheat milled decreased by 33.6% over the same period.

Brewers, maltsters and distillers’ barley usage for the season to date (July 25 – May 26) was down 19.3% compared to the same period in 2024/25. 

You can find the economic impact of the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) on farm businesses in our recently updated Stacking options for SFI 2026.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

unch: no change in price compared to last week

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